Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9435)	2/5/2001 9:58:02 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

The view from CSFB on the SIA data: The recent SIA data for December confirms the obvious: 4Q was really bad. 4Q00 worldwide sales were down 3% from 3Q00 (normally up 5% sequentially 4Q to 3Q). This is the worst decline since 1986 and 1997. However, in examining the reported inventory levels, levels not only worsened (in the aggregate) at semiconductor companies, but also at contract manufacturers and distributors. Our attached inventory tables show that overall inventories probably will need until the end of 2Q to burn off. We remain worried that the worst may not be over: 4Q production was not cut and that pipeline will spill into 1Q; normal 1Q seasonal weakness is being aggravated by economic slowdowns in demand, visibility is as impaired as we've seen since the early eighties. Further, this isn't a balloon squeeze as inventory is up in all channels including the OEMs (from PC companies to Cisco). We believe that valuations continue to be too high in light of fundamentals and that there is downside risk that another full wave of downward revisions in number will probably occur in the next two months.