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To: Lucretius who wrote (64645)	2/5/2001 10:40:32 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

SOX weak BKX sliping, we fade this afternoon.

To: Lucretius who wrote (64645)	2/5/2001 12:06:07 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

i know he is...i wonder why? perhaps he has too much stomach acid? -g- calls? what for? i've heard the word 'recovery' about 50 times already on TV today...we haven't even begun properly with the downturn, and all they can talk about is the recovery? why is no-one suggesting the downturn might get worse? Bill Meehan was on CNBS Friday evening, and remarked that one should ALWAYS fade the consensus economic outlook...which is 100% correct. economists are a lot worse than weather forecasters for instance. in fact, i know of no other profession that has a more dismal record regarding the accuracy of its forecasts. the conclusion is that the second half not only will contain no recovery, but that the slump will in fact worsen considerably. i'm eagerly awaiting the market proving to me that it really IS a discounting mechanism...i always hear the thing about the market predicting 9 of the past five recessions...well, what about the recoveries? in '73, we also rallied off the first rate cuts...and it was a trap.