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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (9440)	2/5/2001 2:08:57 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Respond to of 10921

Actually, I believe the term "blood running in the streets" was coined to describe the losses that investors were undergoing and not the losses at the companies. This may seem like a silly distinction, but at times they are quite different. The opposite of silly. It is PRECISELY the point. Many investors will bail at the worst possible time...thereby exacerbating the decline. The blood. (Conversely, many investors will wait far too long to re-enter the sector - thus the usual bubble at the peak). Many of the companies may NEVER show a loss...but the rate of earnings growth will reverse. And all the other claims regarding waiting and the definition of 'blood' are based on the same degree of hubris that I display: that investors will 'know' when the time is to go long or short in the sector. Going short the equipment stocks now is based on the same logic as going long last spring (which just happened to be the exact advice many participants on this thread advocated): it's the 'obvious' thing to do. This thread has proven time and again that the majority stance is not a prudent investment outlook.

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (9440)	2/5/2001 4:06:42 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

At the bottom of a semiconductor equipment cycle, both the companies and the investors are spilling plenty of blood. To date I have seen no announcements of either losses or layoffs by semiconductor equipment companies. Nor have the pundits started bailing out of the sector. The blood in the streets is barely trickling. Katherine

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (9440)	2/5/2001 5:35:25 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

People will claim, hubris ad nauseum, that x, y, and z will be present at the bottom of the equipment cycle. If these factors don't fall into place roughly approximating these preconceived ideas of a cycle bottom, then the bottom 'by definition' has not occurred. If such were the case, and definitions of cycles were so easy, we REALLY would all be millionaires. Some might claim, reasonably it would seem, that in early December when a majority of the equipment stocks were down 70%, many over 80%, that the blood oozing was substantially more than a trickle. Some might claim, reasonably it would seem, that when virtually every company has warned, some twice, of dramatically lower revenue, that the 'trickle' was clotting in the streets. Some might claim, reasonably it would seem, that when virtually every analyst has reduced their estimates for virtually every equipment stock, some twice, that the source of the 'trickle' was in need of a transfusion. In other words, the companies and investors have been spilling TONS of blood and pundits long ago bailed the sector. Klic for example: 1. At its nadir in early December, the stock had lost 80% (since March); 2. The company announced layoffs in November; 3. Including one time (acquisition) charges, the company had a loss in q1, FY2001; 4. The stock was rated a consensus strong buy in ~ June, 2000 and had 80% institutional investment. The stock is currently rated a low hold (Zack's = 2.8) and institutional investment is down to 45%. And, making a prudent assumption, Klic is the rule, not the exception. BLOOD. Perhaps we're not at the precise turning point at the moment but we're damn close. Institutional investment has already begun to climb again for Klic and the stock just received some upgrades. My experience with this thread is to gather the majority opinion, especially the more strident claims (i.e. 'trickle'), and invest the opposite.