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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (46658)	2/5/2001 12:41:12 PM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Good luck with CSCO and SUNW. I think they're heading for lower levels. Semis sector has negative view from CSFB. Here's their note: Semiconductors - Technology Semiconductor Industry The recent SIA data for December confirms the obvious: 4Q was really bad. 4Q00 worldwide sales were down 3% from 3Q00 (normally up 5% sequentially 4Q to 3Q). This is the worst decline since 1986 and 1997. However, in examining the reported inventory levels, levels not only worsened (in the aggregate) at semiconductor companies, but also at contract manufacturers and distributors. Overall inventories probably will need until the end of 2Q to burn off. We remain worried that the worst may not be over: 4Q production was not cut and that pipeline will spill into 1Q; normal 1Q seasonal weakness is being aggravated by economic slowdowns in demand, visibility is as impaired as we've seen since the early eighties. Further, this isn't a balloon squeeze as inventory is up in all channels including the OEMs (from PC companies to Cisco). We believe that valuations continue to be too high in light of fundamentals and that there is downside risk that another full wave of downward revisions in number will probably occur in the next two months.