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To: NOW who wrote (64758)	2/5/2001 2:01:07 PM
From: rolatzi	Respond to of 436258

According to my charts 1325 is the bottom of trend line for S&P. We have a little further to go on this. This sell off has been incredibly orderly with little volatility to the upside. This is more the kind of sell off I like to see leading to capitulation. In the end, volume should dry up. I don't have a down side target but it would be nice to turn at the last bottom (2080 on NAS 100). While I fully expect a recession of greater duration and weakness than currently envisioned by the talking heads, I think this will not be like 1929. In particular, the ultimate collapse of the market in 1930 resulted from severe deflation commencing in early 1930 and continuing into 1932. There is much more liquidity and inflationary pressure nowadays by way of US government payouts to people in the form of subsidies, social security, etc. I would not go against the flow of the Federal Reserve. Do people have outlooks for how far down this leg will go and for how long? I am not short and would like to buy some stocks when they become oversold for either a long ride or until they become overbought again. In the short term nothing is a bargain because recovery may take longer than 6 months and the market looks ahead. I still expect intermediate term rallies in this ongoing bear market and would like to hop aboard them. rolatzi