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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: onurbius who wrote (17808)	2/5/2001 11:03:53 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Onurbius, I don't think DBAB "warned." In fact, I was so puzzled by what TheStreet.com did with the report, I went back and looked at earlier estimates. 1) on 12/22/2000, a month before earnings, Raj Srikanth changed his Q2 target from 18% to 12% growth, which made him off by 5 pts. Had he not changed it, he would have been off by only 1. At that time he had Q2 at $0.19 and FY01 at $0.80. [Q2 came in at $0.21] JDS Uniphase entered the current quarter with a lot of strength and this should enable them to report December Q results in line with expectations. However, with the easing of lead times in recent weeks we will not be surprised to see some inventory build-up at the customer level. This leads us to believe that meeting our 12% sequential revenue growth in Q3F2001 (March 2001 Q) could be a challenge. Our estimates call for sequential growths of 18% in Q2F2001 (December 2000 Q), 12% in Q3 and 8% in Q4F2001. 2) After earnings were released, Mr. Srikanth updated his numbers again: 1/25/01 The outlook for JDS Uniphase in the intermediate and long term remains strong, however the outlook for the next two quarters are somewhat clouded by inventory adjustments and delays in finalizing carrier capital expenditures plans. Guidance for sequential revenue growth for 3Q FY 01 was reduced to 7-10% compared to our earlier 12% estimate and FY 01 growth was reduced to 115% versus our earlier estimate of 119%. Book to bill was greater than one. We are adjusting down our top line estimates for FY 2001 and FY 2002. We are lowering our FY 2002 EPS estimate to $1.12 from $1.14 even as we raise our FY 2001 EPS estimate to $0.82 from $0.80 to account for this quarter's results. Today he tweaked his estimates again. [From TSC: thestreet.com ] 2/05/01 Srikanth cut his target for third quarter revenue growth to 5 percent from 8.5 percent and for the fourth quarter to 5 percent from 8 percent. He maintained an earnings estimates of $1.12 in 2002 based on an analysis that indicates the Zurich plant sale would be neutral to mildly accretive to 2002 earnings. Q1/01 JDSU made 0.18, and Q2 $0.21. If we use DBAB’s new target of 5% revenue growth to calculate EPS growth (since TSC doesn't give a number), Q3 would be 0.22 and Q4 would be $0 .23, for a total of $0.85 (plus/minus) for the year. Since his last estimate for FY/01 was for $0.82, this is an upgrade. If someone has the report, I’d love to see it. As it is, it appears TheStreet.com focused on a percentage adjustment re: the top line and totally ignored the bottom line. WSJ’s briefing books has the following chart of upgrades and downgrades: interactive.wsj.com For Q3 there are 2X as many ups than downs, and for FY01, there are 23 ups for 4 downs. Pat