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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (9453)	2/6/2001 8:22:03 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Respond to of 10921

Richard - I appreciate the effort you placed in your response. I shall attempt to respond in kind later today or tomorrow. One point that help may clarify your confusion of my views: when I state explicitly or implicitly that 'this cycle is no different', I wish to convey the idea that this bottom will be as difficult to discern as every other cycle and that investors will be as reluctant to acknowledge its occurrence, just like most refused to recognize the top last spring, as in every other cycle. The sector's cyclicity may appear highly regular; there are characteristics of each one that are different. Similarities and differences. Difficult to figure out. That's what makes this cycle no different. And let's not forget the sector has rallied 50%+ without one iota of data of recovery yet. Some may think this an a sucker's rally, an anomaly. I say it's precisely this sort of rally - one that has virtually no support from fundamentals - that is the signal of a bottom and should continue for 6 months or so before the 'real' fundamentals come around. This is a 'past pattern', where support can be found only in the subtlest of fundamental data, that makes the most sense as a predictor to me. JMOH (just my own hubris)

To: Math Junkie who wrote (9453)	3/23/2001 2:35:06 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Two approaches that could have been used are (a) wait for bookings to fall by 50% from their peak, or (b) wait for two consecutive months of increasing bookings. Are you referring to semi capital equipment bookings or semiconductor bookings? Do you adjust the number to correct for the fact that the reported number is a 3 month moving average? Sam

To: Math Junkie who wrote (9453)	3/25/2001 1:01:09 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Richard, "Analysts meeting at this week's SEMI investment conference in New York also said downturns in the business typically result in a 50-to-70% drop in tool orders from a cycle's peak before they begin to pick up again. The peak in the current cycle occurred in October at $2.99 billion for bookings--meaning that the semiconductor equipment downturn might only be halfway over." siliconstrategies.com Precisely the point you made over a month ago. Well done!