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To: Pink Minion who wrote (9454)2/6/2001 6:17:47 AM
From: Math Junkie  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
But are we really sure there is going to be a recession? A lot of people are talking as if it were a given, but we haven't even had one quarter of negative economic growth yet.



To: Pink Minion who wrote (9454)2/6/2001 8:50:09 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10921
 
Actually, the "average" recession is supposed to be 10.5 months. Of course, we have not had any in 10 years, so the next one might be a doozy, but I do not think this is the one. Looking at the data, I think a recession will be delayed quite a bit by the Feds and tax cuts, this time around, but eventual reckoning will arrive, and when it will, we may have a longer one than usual. Just an opinion, and it may change as th Feds and the tax man change their tactics. Consumer confidence is probably the key to whether or not we get one around here.

Zeev



To: Pink Minion who wrote (9454)2/6/2001 10:00:56 AM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth or it can also be an extended decline in general business activity, typically three consecutive quarters of falling real gross national product. Where do you get this 18 month figure? I went to business school and never heard of that.