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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63398)	2/6/2001 12:22:18 AM
From: barrcuda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

SOB posted this over on the drilling thread. If your into this kind of TA? Who knows? About To Explode One of the tenets of Elliott Wave analysis is that the three upward thrusts of a long-term bull market will all occur for different reasons. The first bullion bull burst onto the world investment arena as the shackles of a $35 per ounce controlled global price were lifted and it found its true market value as an investment instrument. Then followed one of the largest bullion moves in history as the oil driven inflation crisis of the late 1970's rocketed gold to $850. It eventually topped out on January 16th 1980. For lovers of Fibonacci that is exactly 21 years ago! My analysis indicates that gold, despite all the popular negativity, has bottomed out and formed a classic technical reversal pattern from January 2001. Let's take a look at the base patterns, as there are several. On the weekly chart there is a three-year base pattern that has developed since 1998 and taken the form of a large Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern. This is a very bullish pattern. But in traditional chart analysis it will not become theoretically effective until it has penetrated the grey neckline at $ 330. However the upside count indicates a move to $395. Is there any other indication of a more immediate end to the Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern? There certainly is. A massive Falling Wedge pattern has developed as the right shoulder of the overall base formation. This is a vicious format and usually leads to extremely sharp upmoves that wipe out the whole of the move inside the pattern in just one third of the time taken to form the pattern. This implies that, once the Falling Wedge is complete, the gold price should move sharply up to $320 within the next four months. There is yet a further indication of a major trend reversal that is about to push the gold price upwards and complete both the above patterns. The daily chart below is a classic textbook example of the Fulcrum base and reversal pattern. The key elements of the Fulcrum pattern are :- a small base followed by an upside rally that quickly collapses back to form a second base. This exactly describes the movement of the gold price since November. The buy signal is given when the price breaks above the second base. This has occurred during the past few days. The Fulcrum is frequently found at the end of much larger chart patterns and signals their completion. There is a minor resistance at $275 that still has to be overcome. But any move in the gold price above $275 will not only confirm the upside breakout but start a significant bull run in bullion. It is my analysis that bullion is ready, after promising so much for so long and driving all gold aficionado's crazy, for a major upside break. This move is signalled by the completion of the Fulcrum base that in turn points to the completion of the Falling Wedge that in turn indicates that the right shoulder of the huge three-year base reversal pattern is complete. I look for a surge in the bullion price to at least $320 by midyear with the target of $395 being achieved before the end of this year. Back to Elliott. What will be the reason for this third and final major bull market? We have already had the undervalued asset scenario followed by the inflationary picture. What the anti gold lobby conveniently forgets is that gold is not just a hedge against loss of earning power and degradation of capital due to inflation. It is the ultimate store of value in times of collapse, especially stock market crashes. It is a superb depression hedge against total loss of capital in terms of economic collapse. If you do not believe me just ask the Russians, Brazilians, Zimbabweans or any other country whose currency has come under severe pressure. I believe that this final multi-year bull market will be the result of a huge bear market on the Dow that will drag the rest of the global markets with it. I do not have a great degree of confidence in Greenspan's latest dramatic actions. I reckon that he has lost control of the juggernaut US economy. Nobody factored the NASDAQ crash and its devastating consequences on both consumer spending and investor confidence into their economic models. As always, the market has the last laugh on those who attempt to control it! Stay with gold shares. Durban Deep (DROOY) must remain my number one gold major. I must look for at least a 100% return this year in what I believe will be one of the leading market sectors, if not the top sector performer. Dr Clive Roffey Johannesburg South Africa February 2nd 2001 Editor's Note: Dr. Clive Roffey is South Africa's leading Technical Analyst, whose forte is gold mining stocks.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63398)	2/6/2001 12:45:01 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116753

<But with the Fed now aggressively easing and the Wall Street consensus expecting a major economic rebound in the second half -- what happens if the economy continues to sink a la Japan despite aggressive Fed ease.> Isn't that the billion dollar question these days? That could take up to 6 months to receive final determination. Till then, I think these markets are in a trading range because most people are so hopeful. I can't blame them. Further out, one needs to also take into account the Bush Tax cuts, which will most likely become retroactive this year. The Reagan Tax cuts were quite bullish long term. But the amount of debt amassed by individuals and publicly traded companies is so much greater today than it was back in the early 80's. Will the tax cut be used to pay off debt or to increase malinvestment? Personally, I think it will be used to pay off debt. But then again I'm very prudent and have no debt, so WDIK? Let's not forget that Gold is denominated in US$$$, so the Dollar will need to drop quite a bit for Gold to rally. The question then becomes if the recession will become worse in the US than Europe? If Europe gets hit harder during the economic downturn, the Dollar may still be viewed as a safe haven by the European CB's and big financial institutions. The economic situation in Japan is also not positive for Gold at the moment. The odds favor Greenspan not being able to prevent a very hard landing. It's like Cancer: if you catch it early, your OK. If not, your Dead.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63398)	2/6/2001 8:56:40 AM
From: Alex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

Mining output for 2000 down 1,1% y/y — Stats SA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total mining production for the year 2000 decreased by 1,1% year-on-year, due mainly to a 4,7% drop in the output of gold for the year, Statistics SA (Stats SA) reported on Tuesday. However, Stats SA said that the decline was partially offset by a year-on-year increase of 1% in the production of non-gold minerals. Turning to quarterly mining production, Stats SA said total output for the fourth quarter of 2000, after seasonal adjustment, rose by 1,2% compared with the third quarter of 2000. This increase was mainly due to an increase of 3,5% in the production of non-gold minerals, but Stats SA said that this increase was partially offset by a decline of 3% in gold production. The major contributors to the increase in non-gold minerals output were building materials, nickel and iron mines. In its latest report on mineral sales, Stats SA said the seasonally adjusted value of mineral sales for the three months ended November 2000 rose 13,5% compared with the previous three months. Furthermore, the actual value of mineral sales for the review period reflected an increase of 31,4% compared with the three months ended November 1999, it said. The 13,5% quarter-on-quarter rise in the value of mineral sales was due to an increase of 18,1% (+ R3 117,3m) in non-gold mineral sales and an increase of 1% (+ R63,5m) in gold sales. The increase of 18,1% in non-gold mineral sales can mainly be attributed to increases of 31,9% (+ R111,3m) in sales of copper, 29,0% (+ R1 880,3m) in sales of platinum, 16,5% (+ R404,1m) in sales of other non-metallic minerals and 12,2% (+ R580m) in sales of coal. The 31,4% year-on-year increase in the actual value of mineral sales for the three months ended November 2000 was due to an increase of 46,9% (+ R6 334,8m) in non-gold mineral sales, Stats SA said. This 46,9% increase can mainly be attributed to an increase of 107,2% (+ R4 141,1m) in sales of platinum, 38,2% (+ R216,3m) in the sales of iron ore, 33,2% (+ R76,6m) in the sales of manganese ore and an increase of 30,1% (+ R122,3m) in sales of copper, it said. — I-Net Bridge Tuesday 06 February 2001 bday.co.za