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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (48100)2/6/2001 12:54:26 AM
From: Eric  Respond to of 77400
 
Hi John

Yes tomorrow will be interesting!

I'll be diving into the inventory numbers to see what's happening.

I wonder how far JC will discuss things compared to other qtrs. I've listened to about the last 20 CC's so my comparator will be turned on!

Eric



To: Stock Farmer who wrote (48100)2/6/2001 12:13:39 PM
From: Tulvio Durand  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 77400
 
John, Your and FD's points about inventories buildup are well taken, and I've learned a bit more about accounting from the discussions. But, am also suggesting that suspicion bordering on paranoia surrounding how Cisco will make earnings is unfounded for a company that is a pillar of the American economy. The emphasis should rather be on the business climate, competitiveness, products, and prospects -- this is the real key to profits, and not the accounting. Towards this we should take note of following from Fortune, which should have important bearing on Cisco's numbers.

"Cisco: How It Aims To Keep Right On Growing
Part 2 "

fortune.com

... Cisco's wounds aren't as deep as they appear. The slowdown in spending by carriers is not affecting all areas of technology equally. In fact, U.S. carriers are expected to boost spending on Internet infrastructure by 34%, to $22 billion, in the coming year, vs. a 23% jump in 2000. SBC Communications, one of the country's largest local phone companies, is among the carriers that have started buying lots more equipment from Cisco. Two years ago SBC's purchases from Cisco totaled "tens of millions,'' says Ross Ireland, SBC's senior vice president of network planning and engineering. Today it's "hundreds of millions'' a year—and rising.

As part of its mega-growth strategy, Cisco is stepping up its efforts in two booming markets—wireless and optical. In the U.S. alone, carriers are expected to spend $15 billion on wireless equipment in 2001. The main beneficiaries so far have been companies like Motorola, Nokia, and Ericsson; Cisco is barely a blip on the radar screen, but it's ramping up fast, particularly in the hot wireless Internet sector.

The optical market is even larger—headed for $63 billion worldwide in 2001, up 36% over last year, according to RHK. Just two years ago Cisco had zero revenues from optical equipment. Since then it has acquired seven optical companies, and it expects optical sales to hit about $5 billion this year, says Carl Russo, vice president of Cisco's optical-networking group. That's a pretty big number, but still only 7% of the total market. To boost that share, Cisco is developing new products that exploit its expertise in managing Internet traffic.


Part 3 is worthwhile reading also.

Tulvio