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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (41883)	2/6/2001 11:10:42 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 70976

>>If they truly believed there would be Blood int he Streets, they would be hoarding cash, not spending it on their stock. Brian K<< >I wouldn't say that industry executives are any better than anyone else at predicting downturns. Just look at the earnings guidance going into the last one. Katherine < I second that. I remember Bagley, LRCX CEO, saying near the peak that he predicted a shortage in DRAM by December 2000. We got EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE and I think Bagley had been one of the more accurate forecasters prior to that miss. Kirk out

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (41883)	2/6/2001 11:37:22 AM
From: willcousa	Respond to of 70976

Katherine, Hear! Hear! I once worked for a flyer where the insiders cashed out at $75 and the stock went to $125.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (41883)	2/6/2001 12:50:47 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

"I wouldn't say that industry executives are any better than anyone else at predicting downturns." Or Fed Chairman for that matter. In defense of what Brian said however, it is a good thing, not a bad thing that many ceos feel this way. The more confident people are out there, especially now, the better. The more stock being repurchased the better. This help firm up the economy and the markets. But it is certainly no guarantee.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (41883)	2/6/2001 1:58:02 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Katherine, My point was not that they were better at predicting industry downturns. But that they were confident enough that a worst-case scenario is not likely given all of the doom and gloom already out there. Most times there is no warning before a downturn hits and the execs are caught offguard. This time though they have many data points from companies, some looking to trim capex(TSMC) and some looking ot boost it(INTC). Given all of what they currently know, I personally believe it is Bullish if they choose to do a share repurchase on the order of 6% of outstanding stock. They would not be doing that if they truly believed they would be hemmoraging money 2 or 3 quarters out. Brian