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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (9468)	2/6/2001 12:59:40 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian >Even the best economists don't know whether there's been a recession until after it's over, except for the shouting. LOL! So true! It did seem like the Fed sure held on to the Philips Curve far longer than Kudlow or others felt prudent. (I tend to agree but I went to engineering school, not business school!) Here is a pretty decent discussion on Kudlow and exactly what you speak. suite101.com I think we bottomed in December, but my other job is not as a carnival fortune teller so I could well be wrong. Kirk

To: Ian@SI who wrote (9468)	2/6/2001 1:38:27 PM
From: LemurHouse	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

<<<Even the best economists don't know whether there's been a recession until after it's over>>> Amen. Or if not when its actually over, then at least until its been going on so long that its unmistakable. (God forbid.) The same can be said for the resumption of the up-cycle in the semi-equip biz. Even the most attentive observers won't have compelling evidence of the upturn until well after the upturn has been underway. And by that time the market -- having discounted the upturn well in advance -- will have already increased the multiples all accross the sector. For me its less important getting the exact timing right than it is getting the direction right. Or at least I find that the direction is less difficult to get right than the timing. Either way, while semi-equip fundamentals continue to deteriorate, I think there is compelling reason to believe that we'll be looking at a return to solid growth within the next 6 - 12 months, and that the market will have discounted those improving fundamentals well before the turnaround makes itself known. I'd be very surprised if we're more than 12 months from a strong upsurge in semi-equip stock prices. I'd certainly love to sell and buy back in lower if I knew how to do so with anything like certainty, but with all due respect to our TA brothers and sisters, that seems to be an elusive goal when one gets down to the fine-tuning. FWIW.