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To: AllansAlias who wrote (65126)2/6/2001 3:52:42 PM
From: Shack  Respond to of 436258
 
I was thinking about shorting some old econ stuff. If tech rallies, rotation should pull it out of the DOW. If CSCO gets sold, then it all goes down.

Although I still have the GE puts



To: AllansAlias who wrote (65126)2/6/2001 3:58:52 PM
From: Shack  Respond to of 436258
 
Nice call AA.



To: AllansAlias who wrote (65126)2/6/2001 4:02:04 PM
From: chic_hearne  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Allan, if there's such a thing as a catalyst that could destroy the Naz overnight, it is Crisco. They defined the mania in many ways and definitely are "the" bellwether stock.

I've been into their financials for the last few quarters pretty thoroughly. I don't think there's enough problems buried in there for them to blow up yet, but we should see a good case of deterioration upon closer inspection.

Not like this matters much, the market only cares about top line and bottom line as reported, the company can say anything they want really, and the street will buy it. Soon, as it becomes more and more clear the economy is grinding to a halt, the art of reading a financial statement will be dusted off [that is if anyone remembers how to do it].

I expect Crisco to beat by a penny as usual [remember, they guide pro forma so all they have to do is sell enough stock to meet the number]. I think they trade up tomorrow, maybe even for a week or two. No more than $45, but we'll see. Then they will print $29.xx by the end of March. I didn't cover any of my short and, gulp, I'm not even hedged with calls. I can endure the headfake, but can't miss judgement day when it cometh so I must stay short.