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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnG who wrote (9124)	2/8/2001 9:36:09 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

re: Cellular History - The Nokia CDMA Flop (Nokia 6185) In 1999 Nokia received some fanfare surrounding the release of the CDMA 6185 and the receipt of a major order from Sprint PCS, and smaller orders from other US carriers like ALLTEL. The poor performance of this unit gave rise to some speculation that Nokia would source chipsets from QUALCOMM. It is consequently surprising to some, that rather than doing this, Nokia has rededicated itself to redesigming its own CDMA ASICs and stated their objective of being number one in CDMA handsets. Nokia claims to have a winning strategy for CDMA dominance. There focus is on Korea (through Telson alliance), the US, Latin America. No plans for Japan because of the way Rx & Tx are reversed in a proprietary implementation of CDMA. The 5185i/6185i will tell the story. CDMA and AMPS performance appear to be "Best of Breed" but there is know word yet on whether the "Send SMS" function is yet resolved in the 5185i on the combined Verizon net. Several new models are planned for 2nd Half 2001. I personally am watching Nokia closely in this endeavor, and will make decisins to increase or decrease my position based on the success of their strategy. Nokia (Larry Paulson) projects that by end of 2002 CDMA will have 42% to 45% US market share. The 5185i messaging hurdle remains The History (Reverse Chronological): * 6185 Nokia still lists the model on their website - 2001 * 6185 Handsets Disappear from Carriers Shelves. - 2000 The product can truly be declared a flop. * 6185 Minibrowser in December? - Sep 1999 Rumor has it that the 6185 on SprintPCS will have a minibrowser, to be released sometime in December with a software upgrade available at any SprintPCS store. This is not confirmed, only the answers heard from some of the CS reps at Sprint. * Sprint's 6185 Update - August 1999 Sprint has released a software update (technically, Nokia has) that fixes the 2 endless "Updating Service" problems of the earlier 6185s. Nobody's sure if this fixes anything else -- officially, Nokia says that's the only fix. 6185 Released! - June 1999 Nokia has released the 6185 to mixed reviews. Sprint customers have first crack at it in the US, with other carriers waiting for fixes to the phone. Biggest concern seems to be the low power output (~300mw) in analog mode. Bell Atlantic, GTE and others are waiting, and Nokia is supposedly working on fixes (perhaps in the form of a different phone -- a 6180?) * BAM and the 6185 01 - July 1999 BAM (Bell Atlantic Mobile) still hasn't announced that they will carry the 6185 -- and I'd waited months to hear anything from then at all. So far, nobody has come right out and said that they won't carry it. The bone of contention seems to be the low power output that the 6185 provides in analog mode -- ~300mw, less than half of the AMPS specification. In addition, about 50% of the 6185 users on Sprint have had extremely negative reactions to the phone -- horror stories of frequently dropped calls, failure to acquire signal, and poor battery life. Others have said the 6185 is the best phone they've ever used. No explanation has been forthcoming from Sprint or Nokia as to the discrepancies. What is known is that there's two versions of the software for the 6185 -- one dated May, 1999 and one dated July, 1999. Nobody is sure what the new software does differently, and nobody knows how to obtain an upgrade for an "older" 6185 to the new rev. The 6185 failed BAM's initial quality tests (many times!), and they are waiting for Nokia to push out a set of fixes (mostly involving the 6185's analog power output). However, nobody has said whether or not Nokia has actually agreed to make the suggested changes, so there is a chance that the 6185 won't make it into BAM's lineup. << - Eric -

To: JohnG who wrote (9124)	2/8/2001 6:54:08 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

<Eric. Perhaps I should say "foot dragging on 3G" rather than "bumbling"> No, bumbling is a reasonable word in that context. Even the boss of Nokia admits that they really goofed and are now going hell for leather on CDMA to catch up to where they should have been. Bumbling and stumbling is what Nokia has done on CDMA. They have also done a lot of foot-dragging and dragging the chain because every day that goes by with GSM ascendant is another day they enjoy huge GSM market share and profits. They would much prefer to be accused of bumbling and stumbling than a deliberate campaign to avoid CDMA to retain their GSM business. How many companies so readily admit to blundering? That day in the GSM sun is coming to an end. They can do okay if they can develop excellent CDMA products but they are way behind. There are many subscriber licensees for CDMA so Nokia won't enjoy 30% market share in CDMA any time soon. So CDMA is a pain for them. I guess they have read The Innovator's Dilemma [thanks for that Uncle Frank]. CDMA is what they call a disruptive technology [I think]. Mqurice