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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (42108)	2/6/2001 6:35:30 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Despite worst-than-expected CSCO numbers, and, of course, it could provide strong impetus for a bad Naz tomorrow/next Naz downleg...I'm still thinking that: (1) Fed will likely still be pumping in liquidity thru daily measures for some time to come...that money always seems to be going into the market, and often tech...that's bullish, for sure...still a lot of cash on sideline... (2) Dow is still on a 1/2% away from triggering a Dow buy signal...that could happen tomorrow...despite the failed attempts, and tired Dow....we are still awfully close to triggering a very bullish buy signal.. (3) Naz is still close to oversold, if not oversold here.. that's good....if it tanks tomorrow....I'd think Sew gets a Buy 2 or even buy 1 signal... (4) What happened to the market as a discounting mechanism? Surely some of Csco's stock drop from 82-33 incorporated the 2 or 3 quarters of slower growth that they see going forward...if so, what should Csco be priced at for results to be acheived in 3Q, 4Q, and 1Q next year? Won't the market look at that for tomorrow? The dread before this earnings report was palpable....the headline since this past weekend... (5) We've had a nice pullback/respite post-Fed, but internals did not get much worse....if we were starting a new downleg, shouldn't we have expected worse internals in the past many days? (6) Soxx has been getting crushed lately....likely more downside (perhaps significantly so) early morn tomorrow...could that be the kind of washout that can lead us higher (short-term)? After tomorrow morn., I would think the Soxx would be short-term oversold...and, thus, might be a decent candidate to help push stocks higher.. (7) Will the Fed let the Naz go near 2300 (or below) before next Fed meeting (without intervention)?...Doesn't that give the buyer a bit of security here? I'm not saying that we won't have a lot of ups and downs over the next few months....just trying to balance the near-term picture (where do stocks go from here?)....and I would think that post-Fed meeting (late March/early April) could be very nasty, but now? No one will know anything more about Q3/Q4 until later in year....would think we will be in news vaccuum, and given increasing liquidity pumped in...would think one has to vote for higher now.. Final comment: I am thinking about Intel horror show in late September, which led to a next-day, sharp turnaround rally of a couple days...