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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (46816)	2/6/2001 10:35:59 PM
From: martin001	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Food for thought: The following chart plots an inflation adjusted Dow from 1800 to the present. Two items leap out: geocities.com 1) The market does always go up in the long run Though sometimes it takes longer than you might wish. 2) Every time the market broke above its upper band it broke severely to retest the lower band before resuming its upward move. It is an eye opening revelation as we are currently above the upper band. Obviously this does not imply that a crash is around the corner but within the next year the odds are extremely high and emphatically supported by historical data. Should not strike fear in the pure trader but for the investor - well a picture is worth a thousand words. M

To: Softechie who wrote (46816)	2/6/2001 10:50:48 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

You forget two pairs of very important words PRICED IN. And THE FED. L-shaped drops occur on panic selling from over-bought highs on sudden bad news. What further bad news could we get that we haven't heard before, and have been hearing since December? Earnings season might as well be over now. CSCO was the last shoe to drop and it wasn't even that bad a report. RECOVERY may take a while but remember that the more bears you hear from on the threads the more of a contrarian indicator that is. And vice versa. Last time everyone was really bulish was two days after the Fed hike. That was the near-term top. Vice versa applies right now. Buy low sell high. Simple logic. So why don't more people get it? When was the most bearish day of the year? January 3rd. Also the best day to buy on which you would have doubled your money on many stocks within 4 days. But now that the Fed has moved in strong don't expect such volatility.