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Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (18850)	2/7/2001 3:40:20 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 19374

Mishedlo, << I just wanted to be 100% sure that that was a bad candle. >> Can't be. Very probably it is, but the only thing you can be 100% sure about is that you can't be 100% sure about anything. I still see little to be concerned about with a short position in EMC. Look at the intraday 15 minute (or whatever) chart: askresearch.com Here you can see that the 'breakout' was really nothing of the sort. Only a correction. The stock had gotten far ahead of its intraday moving averages on the downside, and simply regressed back towards them as is commonplace for stocks to do repeatedly. The key fact here---and this should not be underestimated, IMHO---is that the major intraday moving averages are downsloping, and that EMC is trading below them, and also in a downsloping fashion, making a series of lower lows and lower highs over the last several sessions. As long as it continues to do so, it is very shortable. Today, it attempted to rally, but as is the case the majority of the time with a downtrending stock, when it hit the major moving averages, it hit a brick wall, and bounced off it very convincingly. The last candle on the day has me a bit concerned however, suggesting that EMC was about to launch another run at the moving averages, and also suggesting that it has found short-term support at 69. But the fact remains that EMC is in a short-term (and long term) downtrend, until it proves otherwise. Up until now, it has not, nor does it give any substantial indication that it even might. You say you added to your position at 72; I can only hope that this was after the stock had traded up through 72, hit the 100 min ema and then immediately sold off back down through 72 with an unbroken string of black candles for almost the entire rest of the day. After it had demonstrated it had failed at the test would have been the time to add to a short position, as opposed to anticipating a failed test on the way up towards that test (which might have been successful). In other words, I consider it very risky to anticipate tests of support or resistance. I very much prefer a stock to show its true colors. Also, the CSCO miss after the bell will only help your short position here. I anticipate this will have a major dampening effect tomorrow. To the best of my knowledge, CSCO has never missed consensus from the day it IPO'd 11 years ago or so. EMC will likely be subject to collateral damage tomorrow. (Disclosure: I have no position in EMC) As always, JMVHO....... Walkingshadow