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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Therapy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E. Graphs who wrote (2965)	2/7/2001 1:54:32 AM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 4564

E! In retrospect, it appears we credited the Fed with a lot more common sense than they actually demonstrated. Beginning with the option for the second-last interest rate increase last year, I was "certain" they would not raise....they did. Coming to the last increase, I was "nearly certain" they wouldn't increase, and if they did, I was "almost positive" it would be no more than 25 basis points. They went up 50 basis points (!!) Virtually everyone with a smattering of economics in their background (and many who didn't) expressed a view that the Fed moves appeared to be overkill......but we all credited the Fed (with a benefit of the doubt, perhaps) with some insights that might not be obvious to the casual observer. We were wrong -- big time!--they were running blind. In the same vein, the persistent failure by the Fed to start cutting rates -- to the point that some on this thread were practically screaming at the insanity --- showed that too many people gave the Fed credit for common sense that it is now clear they simply did not possess. So, new knowledge: Don't trust the Fed --- if it smells like a duck, it's a duck! Get out..... But that's last cycle's problem..... how do we make a buck from here?..... In my view, we start looking over the valley. We won't see Naz 5000 anytime soon again, but there are profits to be made..... and aren't we a LOT smarter playing the game this time? <g?> tso