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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (2844)2/7/2001 2:42:51 PM
From: scaram(o)uche  Respond to of 52153
 
Agreed for a Phase I, but this is a Phase Ib - they've presumably already determined the MTD in Phase I and now
all they are likely doing is looking at multiple dose PK etc.

FWIW, here is the SCIO announcement on their Phase I results:.........

Ah, got it. Thanks. Went back and reread the initial question, and see that it applies to the projected transition from Ib, not the speed of transition to it.

Like I said, I know nada re. SCIO. Stopped following them at the second name change.



To: Biomaven who wrote (2844)2/7/2001 4:00:21 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52153
 
for a cumulative probability of a compound entering Phase I of about 15%.

Thanks to lrb for pointing out that those probabilities actually multiply to about 22%, not 15%. (One too many .7 in my multiplication!).

So that should be a little better than a 1 in 5 shot of ultimate success for a candidate just entering Phase 1.

Peter

P.S. Unless of course you need to add back that .7 these days for the chance of withdrawal after approval. <g>


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