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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (41909)	2/7/2001 3:29:51 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Thoroughly depressed today even though we are now coming back. Investing is a humbling experience. Today is a day I would want to be out of the market permanently for reasons of mental health. I still can't figure out what i must have been smoking last year when I failed to take note of interest rate hikes and the effect they would have on tech stocks. My belief is that todays bears are now making the same mistake (and it may continue awhile longer) on the other side. Is that a good reason to be in the market. I don't know.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (41909)	2/7/2001 5:10:22 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

OT to Jacob, From the posts of yours that I've read on this thread, I've formed the conclusion that you tend to err on the side of caution if at all. Thus I'm surprised to see you buy CSCO so soon. I counted 8 downgrades earlier today and 5 Reiterations, of which only one was a Strong Buy. Earnings for the coming year are likely to be about 70¢ at best. So you paid about 43 times Earnings for a company which is forecasting no growth short term. Further, JNPR which has alliances with both NT and ALA has taken 30% Market share during the past 2 years for the high end routers. Other competitors are successfully applying pressure to other niches. Personally I just can't see the market continuing to award CSCO such a high multiple given that it's now conclusively shown that it's not quite so invincible. Do you still believe in the long term CSCO story? ... or do you just see it as a bargain because of the new 52 week low? ... Something else? I'm tempted to step in as well because of distance from recent highs but fear that the Market might give it a 30 multiple on 70¢ keeps me sitting firmly on my hands. in advance, thanks, ian.