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Technology Stocks : Agere Systems (AGR.A & AGR.B) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: architect* who wrote (28)	2/7/2001 5:33:18 PM
From: Adam Nash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 98

I just ran the numbers based on the article posted. Given the state of the IPO market and the communications semiconductor market, the original estimate for $60B is unrealistic in the short term, and certainly for the placement. Look at the recent performance of AMCC (which I am long) and PMCS. However, if you believe in the continued growth of Agere, and you expect valuations to go through cycles long term, there is a lot of value potentially being left on the table with Agere. The $2.5B in debt Lucent is dumping on Agere is a little troubling, as is the 16,500 headcount. Both do not compare favorably with other communications chip vendors. Personally, I think Lucent is worth at least $70B without Agere, so effectively we are getting the spinoff for free. We'll see what actually happens, though. The market is not really in the mood right now for this type of thing.