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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carson who wrote (42266)	2/7/2001 9:46:03 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Good comments, John. I should probably clarify that I am still longer-term bullish on the market and believe that the lows are in. We've broken a rising channel, which to my knowledge has no measurable downside target, so it's anyone's guess how low we go or how soon we turn around. Essentially what has happened is the beginning of a correction out of an uptrend, IMHO, so by definition we should not get new lows. But where she stops, nobody knows. ;-) I wish the uptrend had lasted longer, but the length of time and volume pattern definitely means it was not a bear flag. KO had one of the nicest rising channels I saw last year, and it retraced about two-thirds of its gains when it broke; we retraced 50% as of today, so we could reverse here. It's possible we could reform the uptrend; the NDX in particular has a little wiggle room. It's possible we also could form a big inverse H&S extending back to late November.

To: John Carson who wrote (42266)	2/8/2001 9:28:28 AM
From: hobo	Respond to of 42787

I am long and fully margined as of yesterday, so I am hoping we are still in the channel and we go up from here. i will give you my .02 cents, given in good will. first off, i am no expert technician. my post is directed at the "fully margined position" part. margin is something that works in favor of the brokers. it is the closest thing to "have all odds in the broker's favor". you are making the "comission & spread" disadvantage that any investor/speculator faces a tad harder to overcome by adding "interest" to the equation. and if you think that is not bad enough, just add... "potential for margin call". now... as a former user of debt, (any kind, including margin, and by some measure, not necessarily a "light user of it" either), i feel i have used debt in the proper way and most times, profitably. margin is the one debt that one MUST have the odds better than 50 % of the possibility of success, otherwise one is asking for trouble. my point: this market hardly qualifies for "better than 50% chance of success" i hope you are a swift trader and i wish you the best of success.