February 5, 2001 12:00am
Intertec Publishing, 2001
Telecom Business via NewsEdge Corporation : The new generation of fixed-wireless technologies vaults the defenses of DSL and cable
* New fixed-wireless technologies conquer line-of-sight issues
* Retail plug-and-play units obviate need for truck roll
* NextNet, Sprint, Malibu lead the charge
As alternative service providers go, fixed-wireless broadband technologies don't get a lot of respect these days.
In fact, most industry analysts give the technology relatively short shrift, essentially relegating it to water-boy status behind it s better-known brethren, digital subscriber line (DSL) and broadband cable-modem services.
For the most part, the evaluation has been justified. Deployment of first-generation fixed-wireless systems has been hampered by a n umber of difficult technical issues - the most serious involving direct line-of-sight requirements - that have effectively limited t he technology to its current niche status.
But that may be changing soon as the industry's equipment suppliers begin introducing new, "second-generation" systems they say will not only solve the line-of-sight issue, but also will reduce truck rolls, improve overall spectral efficiencies and dramatically en hance the technology's chances for mass deployment.
"When people look at a new technology, they tend to underestimate the impact it's going to have. That's because people don't realize what it can do," says Douglas Hill, vice president of marketing for Malibu Networks, a fixed-wireless equipment provider based in C alifornia.
"The next generation of fixed wireless will compete effectively with both DSL and cable," he says. "Right now we have a mindset simi lar to cellphones when they were first introduced."
Initially, some saw mobile phones as a niche market, but today they're displacing landline phones, especially in Europe and Asia. If fixed wireless achieves the same kind of growth, broadband deployment will be propelled years into the future.
Not bad for a water boy.
SIDESTEPPING THE RBOCS Broadband fixed wireless owes its rebirth to new technology - namely, advancements in multipoint multichannel distribution service ( MMDS) systems.
Originally conceived to transmit wireless analog cable television signals, MMDS is generally regarded as the best fixed-wireless tec hnology for residential and small- to mid-size business applications. While it has less capacity than other technologies, it has a m uch wider range - MMDS transmitters can be placed up to 35 miles apart and still deliver multiple channels of voice, video, data and high-speed Internet access - which makes it ideal for service providers looking to tap the vast residential market.
When the FCC reclassified the MMDS spectrum and auctioned it off in 1998, major players like Sprint and WorldCom invested billions e ither acquiring existing licenses in key U.S. markets, or applying for new licenses in other areas.
While WorldCom is currently focusing its attention on small- to mid-size businesses, Sprint has become the recognized market leader in supplying the technology to residential users. To date, it has announced service availability in 15 metropolitan areas.
"We think there's a tremendous opportunity out there for fixed wireless because with it, we are no longer dependent upon the RBOCs f or access to the last-mile loop," says Russ Robinson, senior director of global marketing at Sprint. "That has been the issue and wi ll continue to be the issue as long as they have that stranglehold."
But while the company originally intended to continue its growth by offering the service to 40 more markets in 2001, Robinson says t he new technology prompted Sprint to slam on the brakes.
"If we entered another 30 to 40 markets by end of 2001, and then ended up going with the second-generation equipment, we'd already h ave a tremendous amount invested," he says. "So we need to see how all the new products and solutions play out."
Sprint is now conducting trials of the new technology, which it hopes to complete by the third quarter of 2001. Assuming the trials succeed, Sprint expects commercial deployments to begin by the end of the year.
NOT YOUR FATHER'S FIXED WIRELESS Second-generation fixed-wireless technologies trump the old MMDS systems, as well as DSL and cable, in several key areas.
First and foremost, the new technologies overcome the line-of-sight (LOS) requirements of the old MMDS, which requires an unobstruct ed transmission path between a base station - typically located on a tower, mountainside or an area's highest building - and an ante nna, usually located outside the home.
Equipment suppliers claim to have resolved the issue with a tongue-twisting technology called orthogonal frequency division multiple xing (OFDM). Three such suppliers - Malibu Networks, NextNet Wireless and BeamReach Networks - plan to introduce OFDM-based systems this year that will ensure a clear transmission path regardless of the line-of-sight conditions.
The most advanced system, at least at this point, is being offered by NextNet Wireless. The system, termed Expedience MMDS, has been operating in an alpha test since late 2000. In addition to its non-line-of-sight (NLOS) qualities, it also features a desktop "plug and play" unit that eliminates the outdoor antenna.
That means the system, if successful, will eliminate costly truck rolls required to install an antenna at each subscriber's home. In stead, consumers will purchase the Expedience unit at either a retail outlet or directly from the service provider. After registerin g for the service, consumers will simply plug the unit into a personal computer and then the wall outlet.
NextNet completed its alpha testing over MMDS frequencies in Waseca, Minn., and shipped the system early this year to a number of se rvice providers for beta testing. If all goes well, it expects to be in full production later this year.
Obviously such a system could have a major impact on the cable-DSL-fixed wireless equation, if only by dramatically reducing install costs.
"Sprint and WorldCom spent more than $1 billion just to get their MMDS spectrum. But to actually deploy the technology, they had to spend even more on the truck rolls," says Barbara Heine, the spokesperson for NextNet. "With our system, there is no truck roll. And we're the first to have an NLOS system that's actually operating in the field, as opposed to in the lab. Ours is not just a theory any more."
By eliminating the truck roll, Heine says service providers will be able to install the NextNet system for under $100 per subscriber . While the cost of the base station remains undisclosed, Heine says the customer premise equipment will initially start at about $4 50, but should decrease to under $200 within 18 months. Service providers will determine how much of that cost to absorb themselves, and how much to pass along to the customer.
In sum, the numbers measure up well against cable, which Heine estimates ranges from $700 to $1,670 per installation, and DSL, which ranges from $800 to $1,275 per installation.
"In 12 to 18 months, we estimate our cost will be around $380, which is half of the lowest cost for cable and DSL," she says. Malibu and BeamReach aren't far behind, with each saying they are developing similar units that will be released later this year and early 2002, with overall system costs for both in about the same ballpark.
In addition to overcoming the LOS issue, the three vendors are developing ways to help service providers squeeze more out of their s pectrum. For example, each will use time-division duplexing (TDD) to maximize system capacity by using a single channel for both ups tream and downstream transmissions. First-generation systems, on the other hand, transmitted signals to and from the base station on separate channels, says Bernard Aboussouan, vice president of marketing for California-based BeamReach Networks.
Another way to increase system capacity is to optimize its capabilities, particularly in regards to real-time voice and video, which have stringent transmission. Malibu Networks' system uses IP technology to identify voice and video-stream packets, predict and sch edule bandwidth for them, and then fragment and reassemble the packets as necessary.
"We've addressed internetworking issues because whether it's voice over IP, video-file transfer, or Web traffic, they all have diffe rent requirements. We had to figure out how to allow a shared service to use all the bandwidth, so the voice and video still work," Hill says.
BROADBAND BATTLEGROUND Since the second-generation systems won't be deployed in any significant way for at least a year, it's easy to see why most industry analysts project fixed wireless will capture only about 9 percent of the U.S. broadband market by 2004. At the same time, it's also easy to understand why equipment suppliers and service providers alike deride such projections, saying it's far too early to make s uch a call.
Most analysts base their predictions on the assumption that fixed wireless is best suited for the "wire hole" - underserved bare spo ts where it's too expensive for service providers to deploy either DSL or cable modem services. That viewpoint, says Michael Greeson , an analyst with Parks Associates, reflects what Sprint and WorldCom initially said when they were snapping up wireless spectrum li censes in 1998 and 1999.
"But then look what happened," Greeson says. "When Sprint began offering fixed-wireless service last year, did they go to underserve d areas? No, they went to Detroit and Silicon Valley. Then they went to Houston. Are these rural, underserved markets? Of course not ."
As a result, Greeson now predicts fixed wireless will mushroom its way to a 17 percent share of the market by 2004. And if the secon d-generation systems fulfill their promise, he thinks that number could go substantially higher.
While enthusiastic, Robinson is a bit more cautious.
"We're testing out a number of NLOS technologies and based on the early indications from our vendors, they can take areas where we h ave 60 percent penetration and raise that to the high nineties," he says. "We hope that's true. But it's still much too early to tel l. What we're looking for is the best, most cost-efficient technology, because in this business it's cost that counts."
While time will obviously tell, perhaps Heine puts it best: "For most of 2000, the predictions were an 8 percent or 9 percent market share," she says. "Then I read a report that said 12 percent. And by the end of the year, the number was up to 17 percent. So I gue ss you could say we've come a long way in a very short period of time."
In other words, broadband fixed wireless is back with a vengeance - at least on paper. If it lives up to half of its expectations, i t will be a major factor on America's broadband battleground. .end (paragraph)< |
