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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (42334)	2/8/2001 1:29:47 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 42787

Paul....we are looking for some Fibo retracement, and a higher low....but I dunno...this has the feeling of a harsh down move: -Cisco about to crack 30....that is going to scare some 200m weak hands that bought at 30 yesterday thinking $$ was a sure thing... -EMC is falling apart...it has been a real tough stock to crack....one of the few quality companies saying that they see no demand slowdown... -We can't even get back positive...if we do, it'll be weak (in all likelihood)... -Latest investor intelligence numbers were the most bullish since '87.....I guess there are other proxies, but can we really be sure we saw capitulation back on Dec. 21st (or Jan. 3rd)... If we are going to get capitulation...it would make sense to me that we would either get it now (soon) OR sometime- maybe early this summer- if/when companies would start pushing out the profit recesssion into next year... BTW- Most tech companies have very difficult comparisons (still) for 3Q, 4Q on this calender year.... Capitulation now might even make more sense.....if the economy is really going to right itself by end of year....we almost need to have capitulation soon.....for we will have to retest (no?) build a base too....that's going to take months......so any real sustained upturn (new bull) would take place later in summer/fall...before the economy turning....I dunno...we got decent capitulation last Dec. 21/Jan. 3rd....but did we really get it right? After all, Cisco was mid-30's then, under 30 now.... Not trying to be negative here....but I am wondering if a Fibo retrace is all this will be....Csco crack later today should carry some oomph...