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To: Andrew G. who wrote (66022)	2/8/2001 5:17:16 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Andrew, earnings generally matter less to the market than monetary conditions. it is true that the market tends to bottom before earnings do - however, this time i would agree with you that the bottom for earnings is a long way off, and by inference, so is the bottom for the market. the 'second half' story is typical WS stock pimp propaganda - not one of them knows what the second half will actually bring. and you are quite correct that the crucial fundamental variable is the level of debt in the economy, which is way too high. the US consumer has consumed him/herself silly on credit for a decade now, with savings rates going negative last year. this should impede a true recovery for a long time, regardless of Fed rate cuts. and the authorities attempt to once again avert the natural corrective forces from expressing themselves will make the process all the more tedious and longwinded. see Japan.