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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1117)	2/8/2001 6:54:05 PM
From: IndexTrader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12410

Chip, Stan Harley has a low on the 12th as does Hitt. Here is something from Hitt's site. *********** Bears who have short positions outstanding will indeed get their chance at covering the position into the negative astro period from the 8th to the 12th, hopefully at a profit. Bulls who have been impatient, complacent, or just plain stupid in expecting the fed rate cuts to be a panacea after a mania bust are going to have to suffer a period of worry or worse before any further relief. It may be March or April before many of the bulls long positions become profitable if they were taken near the highs made in the last few weeks. ~~~ The fact remains that I am still looking for a good low on or about the 12th. After the 12th bears who become too aggressive or stubborn and refuse to take a profit may give back any gains made from now to the 12th. Volatility is lower and profit objectives must be adjusted accordingly so take what is given and don't just assume that 2001 is 2000 when it was easy to be a bear. After the 12th I fully expect a VERY aggressive move from the Bush administration to stop the bleeding. Everyone who is either flat or short will be hostage to the ever present threat of something like a capital gains tax cut or an IRA contribution adjustment being announced at a time of technical danger to bulls. The dynamics can change in a hurry because a rule change will be priced in way before the date it becomes effective. The fact is that the fed rate cuts have ALREADY put some sellers on hold. Take any more sellers out of the picture and you will then have a THIN LOW VOLUME rally no matter what the big picture looks like. There is already talk of a CAPITAL GAINS TAX CUT to take effect in July 2001. The last capital gains tax cut in 1997 caused a rally from the announcement date to the date that the bill went into law in August. The selling culminated in October in a mini-crash. A July gap gains cut would be PERFECT TIMING I might add for the overall scenario late this year. Don't forget which stocks have capital gains left to take. Bush OLD ECONOMY stocks (heavily weighted in the Dow and VLE) mostly have long term gains to take. The OLD MONEY stockholders favored by Bush policy changes will wait to take those gains in July before things get really rough next fall. This favors bullish prognostications detailed later in the updates for the Valueline index into July. astroecon.com

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1117)	2/8/2001 8:17:42 PM
From: Doo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12410

Chip. Thanks for the note about the Texas BSE herd quarantine. Sorry not to have responded at the time. It is just a matter of time, as you say. Also saw an interesting article somewhere about soybean demand as a result of the scare, but I don't know where I saw it. Latest stuff I'm reading on my sheep email groups is a relationship between Johnnes Disease in animals and Crohns (sp?) Disease in humans. And reading tons of stuff on CJD in deer, elk, etc. Got a few legs left of the pasture raised, but we're blowing through a ton. Looking to April to lamb the next group. Should be about 10 lambs ready for processing off pasture in late Sept. Going to slaughter a little younger this year and see if that improves a hint of toughness in some of the cuts that we saw in lambs in the 105lbs. live weight range. Been reading quite about meat lately.....making me hungry. :)