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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (41948)	2/8/2001 6:46:50 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Any thoughts on strategy as we head into earnings here? Hope all the threaders don't mind me saying this, but I am hoping it gets hammered due to the numbers or guidance, because I would like to buy in more. I would like to see a Cisco type thing happen in fact, bad news based on the economic slowdown vs. a fundamental problem with the company. Something that causes a panic among the mutual fund and pension fund managers out there. If it does go down a lot on Tuesday evening I will probably buy in then on the Instanet (sp?) market. One other question, how often does your data come in, the data you use for your charts? I have not been following these data much, and in fact am starting to rely on your charts for the best access to that information. Regards, John

To: Gottfried who wrote (41948)	2/10/2001 8:37:46 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Looking at your charts of orders, shipment and BTB, it looks like we will have a few months in this AMAt cycle downturn. The last two cycle downturns were 79+% off the highs. This would take us to an approx. $24 bottom. The previous bottoms were approx. $21.75. By the way, the DW BP SEMI sector this past went from 69% to $44. Our NAIC for EMC is $47.5, CSCO of 21.2, NT $15 and AMAT at 35 which we have already reached. However, with CEO Morgan's statement of the BTB # coming in below 1, cutbacks, and neg future soft we may reach the $24 in AMAT. Just my opinions. Paul