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To: pompsander who wrote (65637)	2/9/2001 5:51:39 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi pompsander; Re "today's news on RDRAM production means DDR on the Desktop is Comatose, Comatose, Comatose." The figures that are being talked about are a promise of an increase in production of only 8.7 million units per month by the end of the year. The first thing to note is that this is only a promise, and the memory makers have promised similar RDRAM ramps many times in the past. The second thing to note is that in the unlikely event that this time the memory makers aren't fooling around, 8.7 million per month is still chicken feed as far as total DRAM production. For a memory market of $30 billion, with chips at $6 each, production is around 5 billion per year, or 400 million per month. What we're talking about here is a promise to increase production to 2% of total DRAM (by units) over a nearly 12 month period. If this were an indication that (1) prices were going to come down, or (2) the rest of the industry was going into production it would be significant, but it is not. -- Carl