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Biotech / Medical : QLT PhotoTherapeutics (QLTI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brasco One who wrote (1185)	2/8/2001 8:44:10 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 1321

Donny, unfortunately, I bailed out of SCON before it got to $115 leaving a lot on the table (but enjoyed a good part of the ride up and many interim "down channel" bounces as well. The same with HAUP. As a matter of fact HAUP was an excellent call when I recommended at $8 presplit for a triple bagger (which it did in spade, it went to just shy of $100), after it reached $30, it was simply a momo stock, no longer, then a "value stock". I have no apologies to extend, particularly due to the fact that I shouted loud and clear "Sell" when it reached the $90' (presplit). No, I did not call it suddenly "POS", I just said it was no longer a bargain as it was at 1/12 that price. As for QLTI, the rationale that a stock moving from $25 to $37 in one day is not defensible intellectually, since you will have to conclude that when the same stock went from the mid $40 to the $20' it became a "value stock", both arguments are faulty. The stock today may have overshot, but its recent trading range was between $25 and $31, and it is likely, IMHO, that a new trading range in the $32 or so to $37 is just being reestablished (it was an old range the stock was in before their last report was received with some disappointment, you did not come here to call it a value stock then <g>). It may very well be that this range overstates the value of the company, but that is something we may want to measure rather than declare it to be such. The fact of the matter is that there is a "pool" of money (which itself increases and decreases with the then prevailing vogue), "assigned to go into stocks like QLTI, and the valuations are simply relative (of course the whole sector might be POS), so one simply tries and compare the potential of a company like let say IDPH (Zevalin) and QLTI and tries to determine which might be a better buy (or short sale), for this you take measures such a market potential, the financials of the company, the management and even the "partnerships" already set in place etc. QLTI is selling (at $35) at a PE of next years earnings of about 63, while IDPH at a PE of 74 (same next years expected earnings). Now you may say these are excessive valuations, and with possible multiple compressions, you may be right, but the relative pricing of the two was in favor of QLTI when it was selling yesterday at $25. Since I am personally involved with PDT, I happen to believe that QLTI's "visible" markets, are not even 1/10 of its potential markets, I also applaud management for concentrating first in one arena (vision health) and licensing out some secondary applications, that shows a management that makes choices between too many opportunities available. Does that means that tomorrow I am rushing to buy? Now, I will first assure myself that indeed the $31/$32 area is the new support area and try and buy there (and I may miss again, as I did today). By the way, I am flat on QLTI having sold it earlier and my GTC just under $25 was missed before the run, it does happen. Last, the acrimonious responses you have received from some posters had nothing to do with your shorting or not the stock, it had to do with calling an investment they believe they have investigated in depth and evaluated in details "pos". Now, maybe "piece of shit" for you is a complimentary term, to most rational people it conveys the idea that you are a "genius" and they are holding a piece of garbage. At least, you should have the courtesy to explain what metrics you used to determine that QLTI is "garbage" Good luck shorting it and make sure you use a stop not much above $39, it could easily run to the mid $50 once it breaches that area. Zeev