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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tradelite who wrote (47104)	2/8/2001 11:35:16 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

To the rookie. You're right, the Dow is doing fine. My VZ and GE are steady. I even make a dividend. Flight to safety is what it's called though VZ and GE are also growth stocks. Why VZ has such a low PE I don't know but that's why I buy it. Value. As the the Naz, the CSCO numbers upset many people and the market always goes too far. Some argue it hasn't gone far enough but typically a near miss on earnings brings a severe punishing and so CSCO is down 17% in a jiffy and is such a leader it brings others down with it. Suddenly it is in vogue to be bearish and pessmistic. It feels to many like the right place to be. But sometimes the harder they fall the more they come back. And sometimes all the bad news really is priced in. What could cause a sharp snap-back? A Fed cut. A change in conventional wisdom. Someone influential saying enough is enough. Or just a healthy bounce off the bottom. Wherever the bottom happens to be. Buying brings more buying. Selling brings more selling. Sometimes. Usually when a lot of traders are short you hear everyone yelling that the bottom is far far below. Because they have a vested interest in saying that. When everyone is long you hear dreamy reports of easy doubles. We're all guilty of that from time to time. He all hype and bash though we may believe what we are saying and dispute those tags. The reality is the market usually takes us by surprise and conventional wisdom itself can become a contrarian indicator. Nobody seems to get the fundamental truth buy-low sell-high. I see more shorting at what might be the bottom than I ever do when we are riding high. And more buying near the top then like right now when few are buying. Ironically though that is exactly how you make the most money. Buy into pessimism and sell into optimism. But make sure you don't move too early. Always tricky. Timing is everything. Don't be surprized if this is the tech bottom. Prices are looking awfully juicy even for the very cautious. EMC below 60, LU at 17, CSCO and SUNW holding bottoms (so far anyway) 30 and 26. Retailers were a favorite defensive sector lately but now they are fully valued. Ditto oil and gas. And drug stocks. So where will the future money flow? Probably back to tech though we certainly need something in the news to change the negative spin, shine rays of hope into the hearts of pessimistic traders and the beginning of a new chapter. All in all, there are no rules. That's why conservative brokers say invest a little every month no matter what the price and over the long-long term you will be fine. But if you want to plunk some cash into the market I'd look for a day when NO ONE is buying. Like January 3rd. Or maybe even like today in some stocks. Though we shall see, we shall see... In other words, I know nothing. LOL