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Technology Stocks : EARTHLINK (ELNK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PeterR1700 who wrote (2295)	2/9/2001 12:33:39 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Respond to of 2553

AOL's per sub number would be tough to figure. Too much media stuff. $400 per sub for AOL subs alone would be only $10.8 billion. It was trading for several times that pre-closing with TWX. Still, rather than basing it on AOL, which valuation may be unreasonable, I'd rather base it on the cost to duplicate ELNK's subscriber base. On that basis, the $400 number is probably low since MSN was paying that much in rebates to get subs, but would take years to get 4.7 million more subs on that basis. Of course, the best valuation number, IMO, would come from DCF analysis, but that depends on one's ability to predict cash flows far out into the future. You'd also have to adjust stand-alone cash flow projections to add back synergistic benefits to a buyer if valuing it on a takeover basis. Bob