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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Trader who wrote (41974)	2/9/2001 9:08:30 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

John, Ken Fisher is an occasional Forbes columnist and runs an investment fund, I think. I like him, probably because in the past he said what I wanted to hear. It's a surprise he is so bearish now. Maybe he's wrong again - he didn't do too well last year. Yes, we get many conflicting opinions about NAZ direction. You're doing the right thing by just concentrating on your stock. Those who think NAZ might perform like the Nikkei are victims of their own fears. Nevertheless, nobody knows where investor psychology will take us near term. I have not compared the semi equipment cycle to fed rates. But I have the fed funds data if anyone wants it. When things are gloomy it's best to look at a LT chart and see if we're above or below LT trend - as you have suggested. At least AMAT's problems are NOT self-inflicted [unlike LU]. So the stock must come back in your 2 year time frame. And the SEMI orders charts can help give us the confidence to ride it out. I expect orders to drop for a few months. I'm holding a small token position in AMAT and expect to buy more a little lower. If it doesn't go lower, I'll buy a little higher. I'm diversified and will not get rich an AMAT alone. Regards Gottfried