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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (66493)	2/9/2001 5:05:53 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

This is priceless: "The market continues to focus on negatives. It is unfortunate that the momentum we had (in techs) in January is fading," said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at Joseph Gunnar & Co. which manages $750 million.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (66493)	2/9/2001 6:03:00 PM
From: 200ma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz what are your thoughts on AU? good or bad gold company?, has dividend of over 6%...thanks

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (66493)	2/9/2001 10:13:37 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

hb - mises.org "Business Cycle Primer by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. [February 8, 2001] Sometimes it’s painful to read the business press, and never more so than during an economic slump. Reporters flail about for explanations. They quote stock analysts, politicians, day traders, other journalists, and even, from time to time, academic economists. But they never seem to arrive at anything approaching an explanation. And what, precisely, are we seeking to explain? At any given time in a regular economic setting, some businesses are succeeding and some are failing. Laborers shift from one firm and sector to another. This is a picture of a dynamic market economy in which resources are finding their way to their most productive uses. What’s unusual is when the business failures and layoffs occur in a cluster, as if many normally savvy entrepreneurs, in the same interval of time, just happen to make a series of bad judgements. It is the coincidence of these bad judgements—these errors of investment that come together to threaten recession—that cries out for an explanation. ..." "...Business cycle theories are legion and they come and go. But the only explanation that has stood the test of time was first advanced in 1912, in Ludwig von Mises’s masterwork, The Theory of Money and Credit. Elaborations on the theory, by Mises and his student Hayek in the 1930s, culminated in the Austrian theory of the trade cycle. The theory begins by observing the profound effect that interest rates have on investment decisions. Left to the market, interest rates are determined by the supply of credit (a mirror of the savings rate) and the willingness to takes risks in the market (a mirror of the return on capital). What throws this out of whack is manipulation by the central bank. When the Fed feeds artificial credit into the economy by lowering interest rates, it spurs investments in projects that don’t eventually pan out. In this economic boom, the high-tech and dot com manias resulted from a decade of sustained money growth via lower interest rates. When the Fed stepped on the brakes to prevent prices from rising, it prompted a sell-off, and hence a downturn. What’s tricky to understand is what can’t be seen. Just because prices aren’t going up doesn’t mean the money supply is in check. Just because people in some sectors are getting rich doesn’t mean that the prosperity is on solid ground. Just because the stock market is going up doesn’t mean that the architecture of investment (to use Jim Grant’s phrase) is in good working order...." Regards, Don

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (66493)	2/10/2001 4:25:18 AM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

hb - herald.com "...Nevertheless, Franklin proved an important scientific point, which is that electricity originates inside clouds. There, it forms into lightning, which is attracted to the Earth by golfers. After entering the ground, the electricity hardens into coal, which, when dug up by power companies and burned in big ovens called ``generators,'' turns back into electricity, which is sent in the form of ``volts'' (also known as ``watts,'' or ``r.p.m.'' for short) through special wires with birds sitting on them to consumers' homes, where it is transformed by TV sets into commercials for beer, which passes through the consumers and back into the ground, thus completing what is known as a ``circuit.''..." Regards, Don

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (66493)	2/10/2001 11:21:05 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Sorry if this sounds like a basic question, but.. Wasn't the bubble starting in Oct. '99 really a function of Fed daily measures (repos buybacks), and (obviously) not previous rate cuts.....it seems that there is so much focus on the Fed cut the discount/funds rate(s), but that the REAL emphasis should be on the pumping down by these daily measures...that is the more immediate pump method, and it seems to work like a charm.....huge increase in late Dec./Jan...the (Naz) market took off... Do you monitor this? How much creedence do you put on it? Now, are the repos the only thing used? If there are other measures, what are they? Is it possible to track them on a daily basis? I've seen a link to (Yahoo) newswire that mentions when the Fed does daily interventions....would that be the best way to go about monitoring? It seemed for a while there, every time the Fed acted (in a big, daily way), the market lept <G> My understanding is, that the Fed frees up liquidity for the banks via the repo (buybacks), and sitting on non-perfoming cash, it is immediately dumped into the market (and/or bonds).....is that right?..what I'd like to (also) know is...how come the Naz always seems to benefit more (from this liquidity)..even in bad time (this Jan.)? I am really interested in following this (regularly), since it seems so germane. Much thanks for any help you can provide. Sorry for all the questions ... BTW- Loved that '82 Austrian World Cup team....they made a good show that year......what was the forward's name again who scored a few goals that year? Can't believe I already forgot his name.....Yanks getting progressively better, too...we got some 16-19 years olds who are going to be stars in Europe, just wait! I reckon 2006 (in Germany?) will be the big breakthru Cup for U.S. (sorry if I'm offending any soccer-haters here <G>)