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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas DeGagne who wrote (317)	2/9/2001 7:19:20 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

Tom, First of all, as a group, I believe th semi-equips are very oversold. This is somewhat corroborated by looking at the present PE/G ratios of the group. Only 1 stock, SVGI, presently has a PE/G greater than 1. A lot of very negative sentiment "out there" right now. I prefer the larger cap stocks in the group, because I think they will recover sooner and are safer than some of the smaller cap stocks. Some names are AMAT, NVLS, KLAC, LRCX and ASML. Over the long term, once the new "up cycle" is in place, most of the stocks in the group should do very well. Over the short term, who knows? - certainly not I.<gg> As an example, just look at CYMI the last 8 trading days. On Tuesday, 1/30, the stock closed at 35.25. Today, just 8 trading days later, the stock closed at 25.38. That's a loss of 28 percent. As you can see from the table this week, next year earnings is estimated at 2.90, giving a PE of 9 and a PE/G of 0.33. What caused CYMI to behave in this manner? - certainly it should qualify as a "grossly" oversold stock at the moment and is probably going to rebound next week - then again, maybe its not finished with its self destruction yet?<gg> Don

To: Thomas DeGagne who wrote (317)	2/10/2001 9:07:09 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95617

Thomas - perhaps one approach to evaluating the 'best and the safest investments in Equip at current prices' is to view performance during the recent 8 week rally. A logical assertion can be made that those stocks that do well during this nascent move will also outperform the group when the rally resumes. The table below shows the performance (through 2/09/01) of some equipment stocks since 12/01/00 (ranking from last week shown at far right). I see no correlation between market cap and performance and I've not observed such a relationship for ~6 months. You may want to examine the top 10-15 stocks in this list. While there has been some shifting in positions, all of the top 10 stocks remained in this quartile during the past week. This pattern, the outperformers continuing to outperform, has also held for an extended period. No guarantees. Just some facts to work with. 1. ibis....88.43%....(2) 2. plab....83.21....(1) 3. utek....80.38....(10) 4. dpmi....72.96....(8) 5. tgal....51.03....(4) 6. asmi....49.82....(9) 7. klic....48.22....(5) 8. lrcx....48.08....(6) 9. sfam....46.86....(7) 10. nvls....40.49....(3) 11. mtsn....35.40....(17) 12. wfr....34.27....(15) 13. asyt....33.06....(13) 14. klac....29.26....(11) 15. ltxx....26.26....(18) 16. brks....24.54....(19) 17. cohu....24.47....(26) 18. egls....21.70....(23) 19. veco....21.57....(21) 20. pria....21.43....(16) 21. cymi....19.39....(12) 22. nano....18.15....(14) 23. atmi....18.07....(20) 24. ggns....11.94....(29) 25. svgi....11.69....(25) 26. ter....11.43....(22) 27. asml....11.29....(24) 28. amat....10.53....(28) 29. fsii....6.19....(31) 30. smtl....6.05....(27) 31. emkr....1.25....(33) 32. cmos....0.57....(32) 33. cree....-2.74....(34) 34. helx....-2.94....(30) 35. imsc....-4.85....(36) 36. phtn....-11.44....(35) 37. adex....-18.31....(37) 38. atrm....-20.18....(38) Mean = +24.93%.