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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (27971)	2/10/2001 10:21:56 AM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

"1. "IF" Brookdale in October" Reports are it is sampling now. If that is true, then October should be no problem. In fact, if Intel gets panicked enough it might show up earlier and run the risk of not being entirely stable. Now whether or not the P4 can actually have any yield at 2GHz on their 0.18 micron process, that is a different question. The other question is what will the performance be like on a (at most) 2.1Gbytes per second memory bus. That benchmark of a P4 on single channel DRDRAM vs. a dual indicates that the performance would be ugly. The great sales of Athon Gigaprocessors and the anemic sales of the P4 seems to indicate that MHz alone does not sell, despite what has happened in the past. An integrated chipset like Brookdale is not going to be a great enabler for a processor that will sell for $500 plus. It might be a great boost for sales if Intel gets the ASP of the P4 down to under $200, but that won't be in the cards until well into next year, if then. Even a $100 integrated motherboard is not going to make a $500 processor that much more compelling.

To: niceguy767 who wrote (27971)	2/10/2001 10:46:36 AM
From: peter_luc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Niceguy, points well taken :-) You are right, I should not worry too much about events that MAY come (or may NOT come) in Q4, thereby totally forgetting that the foreseeable future looks so bright. Until the Brookdale DDR chipset arrives Intel has nothing to counter AMD. The P4 with RAMBUS is too expensive (the KT 133A chipset for ultra cheap PC133 SDRAM is a BLESSING) and the good old, boring Pentium III is not powerful, not "sexy" enough any more. The next 6-9 months will be not easy for Intel. This is an excellent chance for AMD to build up momentum and gain recognition as a quality company. We need a paradigm shift in the public perception. Until now, since AMD had introduced the Athlon, no matter how much Intel was technologically behind, the general perception was that Intel could release any moment a wonder weapon which will destroy AMD and restore the old order. Or start a price war like in the K6-2/Celeron days, which also would kill AMD. So no matter how much superior AMD was, its destiny was to be "roadkill", without a "song and a prayer". I think the reluctance of IT managers to choose AMD has something to do with this perception. Would you choose a company which may easily be history in six months?? Certainly not. Maybe the first sign of that paradigm shift in public perception is the furious rise of AMD's share price in the last month. AMD just HAD to be dead right now. Roadkill. Intel has released its most dreadful wonder weapon - and AMD is not defeated but stronger than before. So what is wrong? Answer: The perception of AMD as a roadkill company is wrong! Some analysts are going to realize this. IT managers should follow soon. Have a nice weekend! Peter