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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (41999)	2/10/2001 9:20:10 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Remember, after the SEMI BTB numbers break 1 there appears to be lower BTB # later along with lower prices. I expect the orders to break below the shipment orders on your charts this month. The SEMI's BTB, orders and shipment numbers will be out the week of 18th I believe. I do not expect AMAT to drop further based on that report and future anticipation of further downturns, esp. after looking at your charts and data we have compiled. However, looking at the '96 AMAT rally, the current IBD data AMAT's industrial price position has moved up to 101 from 194, RS of 27, and accummulation of B. The IBD data is positive. AMAT can go either way, IMO, but we are getting near a bottom. The old question, "What is the downside risk vrs the upside gain," is still the question. I wonder how many shares of AMAT that Lester E. has acquired since he has been holding AMAT and riding the up and down cycles.<g> We should have followed his lead. Paul