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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (47170)	2/10/2001 11:22:59 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Wm. Jepsen: Your post is too simplistic. It is precisely because there are not many things to exploit that I think sitting on cash MAY become the best option going forward. Having said that, I am currently only 1/3 cash. I think you are making the assumption that when the market recovers, it will be a "V-bottom" and not being fully invested will cause an investor to miss much of the rally. I am not in the "V-bottom" camp and think this recession (and, yes, believe me, this IS a recession) will last longer and have a slower recovery than many think. I'm betting there will be ample time to jump on board when the bull market reawakens. With regard to "buying the absolute bottom of the barrel stocks in late December and early January", this did not work at all for the vast majority of investors. The real problem with 2000 is that every time an investor jumped in thinking it was "the absolute bottom", the market went significantly lower. Yes, if you jumped in when NASDAQ dipped below 2300, you made some nice coin. Problem is, I can recall many thread gurus saying that 3500 was the absolute bottom, 3200 was the absolute bottom, 3000 is the bottom, etc, etc. In a recession, very few stocks or sectors do well and even fewer investors make money. I am far more concerned about avoiding another "slow bleed" in 2001 on top of the carnage in 2000 than I am about missing the gravy train. The bull market will be back -- and I intend to have the money on hand to take advantage of it when it arrives.

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (47170)	2/11/2001 12:49:01 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

William, I agree with you. . . 2 Trillion in cash is impressive. "I prefer to trade. To park money is in effect giving up, and there are many things to exploit. And when things do turn up for the markets, it would be a good thing to already be long, rather than trying to play catch-up, the same way buying the absolute bottom of the barrel stocks in late December and early January worked, and letting the little doggies run, some returning 500%...." Yes, we seem to be very near the time to turn bullish once again, IMO. When short-sellers begin to get over-confident is when the bulls pile-on and squeeze them hard. I am watching for a key reversal this week and would make sure that all shorts were covered going into this week, if I were trading. Remember those issues that pop first for highest percentage gains? They aren't always the ones you would expect. Genomes, chips, small cap beaten downs. . . .the high-fliers often get a big bounce on the first day, but these others tend to take up the slack from there. Should be an interesting week ahead as panic sets in as new lows are made on many tech issues. Looking for manipulated surprise good news PRIOR to short-covering rally. . .to start a burst squeeze. Sorry, Delphic. . . I believe we WILL see a V-bottom this time. . .as negative sentiment prevails. . . . also, I have heard reports from many readers here that they did exceptionally well buying the bottoms of small and micro caps in December and early January. The ones who didn't do so well, tended to have bought the same old tech names. . . like CSCO, INTC, MSFT, ORCL, etc. . . stocks I rarely ever trade. I haven't been trading, but I plan on jumping back in when I smell the long-blood and the short-greed. Rande Is