To: Bargain Hunter who wrote (19045 ) 2/10/2001 11:08:13 PM From: Craig Freeman Respond to of 60323 Bargain Hunter, re: "stocks do have "real value", or at least "perceived real value". No disagreement there. Once you added the word "perceived", everything else fell neatly into place. Bonds (and a very few stocks) have a "real value" because you can compare a known price and yield to alternative investments of similar duration. Tech stocks generally have neither yield nor duration and therefore cannot be valued using traditional methodologies. During the past century, about 98% of all bonds have paid out exactly as shown of the bond's face ... and most of the remaining 2% paid something. On the other hand, you would be hard-put to find many "tech" stocks that have been in existence for even a decade. IMHO, the term "value" means either 1) the result of a calculation weighing known cash flows over time, or, 2) a relative measure for comparing possible investments and/or purchases. This may sound like a quote from second-semester microeconomics but we all do have choices. Treasury bills are a perfect example. Because T-bills are so reliable, a person can sell 4-year notes and simultaneously buy an equal amount of 5-year notes, pay no "premium", and know fairly accurately what the possible outcomes will be. On the otherhand, if you buy 1000 shares of SNDK, where do you go to sell an offsetting investment with no premium? Answer: You can't. IMHO, in today's tech marketplace, value cannot be determined because we can neither compute an absolute value according to "net present value" computations nor can we make accurate relative comparisons. Our time frames are too short and our information too limited to do better than to make an educated guess. Craig