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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: brunn who wrote (42010)	2/10/2001 3:39:24 PM
From: advocatedevil	Respond to of 70976

Brunn, AMAT's P/E has moved in a fairly broad range: Last Fiscal Year ending PE = 22.1 Last Fiscal Year PE High = 48 Low = 16.7 5 Year PE High = 66.9 Low = 6.6 With a current P/E near 18 it does seem like we could be near bottom, but I have to agree with your comment: "...who will care in May or June about earnings this year of 1.00, if there is a perception that earnings will increase back to previous highs next year..." Unlike CSCO, I doubt if anyone care's much if AMAT slightly misses, but like CSCO, an extended weak outlook could be nasty. A potential problem here is that things can change quickly with push-outs and cancellations happening at a moments notice. Even the players have great difficulty in predicting what's going to happen more than a quarter out. Look what just happened to AMAT. Morgan's 1/30 warning for the quarter was based on what specifically occurred in January. Regardless of the forward looking comments we hear next week, we'll probably end up not knowing much more than we know today. As for opinion and where AMAT will trade, well, that's another story. AdvocateDevil

To: brunn who wrote (42010)	2/10/2001 9:52:26 PM
From: Andreas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brunn; You make a lot of good points. However, I'm more concerned with next week's market reaction to amat (if eps forecasts are indeed cut) than I am to the market's reaction in may and/or june. In other words, I'm worried about next week's perception that the world is coming to an end more than a may or june perception that things are improving. Also, a return to a top-side p/e of 30 could bring amat to a ceiling of about 30 - 36 depending on how much eps is cut (if it is cut at all - which is all speculation at this time). Finally, who is to say that if bad karma gets out of hand that irrationality won't take hold and hand amat a new p/e of 10 on a silver platter? But then again, it's always darkest before the sunrise.