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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (8964)	2/12/2001 12:39:25 PM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

my REAL problem is options-calculation actually I use to lose about 10% weekly (!!!) with long calls while underlying doesn't move (f.e. J2001, after (!!!) the rate-cut) Doesn't matter how far from the money and there's no significant relation to volatility. Seems that times when classic options-formula has been used is over definitely - there's no strong time-influence, no rate-change, no variation of volatility, no dividends. Guess it's just a strong believe in depression and related price-manipulation. Whatsoever, given this one cannot continue using leaps as alternative investment-instrument, at least not going LONG with calls/puts. Even if it was a lot of work to check a great number of options this trend seems to be quite clear. However, this is not science but surely more than opinion. Any comments? Jury

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (8964)	2/12/2001 1:04:57 PM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Respond to of 11051

DJ, I'm quite in trouble changing my strategy but however, here's a CISCO-comment - I don't think that cisco's warning comes from competition - I don't think that the greatest part of cisco's problems comes from US-depression - I do think that telcoms are going through a period of doubt and fear about the future and reduce engagements whereever this can happen without immediate damage. - I think that's more psychology (at least by now) than reality: cellphone-sales wasn't that bad so far I read. - I think that structural problems with internet-access-business aren't unevitable (n times free access means no resume for nobody, right?): this can be a real problem for Cisco, but IMO MORE for their competition. Even this could rescue when markets want to have by far more bandwith. All together: Given that US stock-markets could find a turn (cause I doesn't understand the downturn I have no opinion about a revival...) during the next 2 quarters, I also expect new hope from telcom-sector. Then and only then I bet that Cisco's lowered numbers are beatable. Sorry for not calculating all this "knowing what I don't know" 3 digits behind the point like say Buback <g>. Jury