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To: Dave who wrote (5590)	2/10/2001 2:23:32 PM
From: alanrs	Respond to of 8925

I believe there is a lot of truth in your post. Personally, the one portfolio I have with a fixed amount of money (a $17,000 IRA established 1/96) maxed out at $170,000 in March of last year for a return of 1000% in a little over 4 years. In the ensuing 11 months it has been decimated and is now worth $85,500, or roughly 1/2 it's max. However, this still represents a 400% gain in 5 years and I tend not to worry too much about the short term on this one. It was obvious that 170k was ridiculous, but so was 150k and 120k on the way up to my way of thinking. Sure it would have been nice to cash out at the top and be all cash this past year, but I'm not that smart or lucky. I doubt I'm an investment genius, so I presume this instance is not unique. Hence a certain lack of fear at this point. Also not eating or rent money, nor my only investment. Edit:also wanted to add that the above is one of the big reasons I follow this thread. It obviously would be better if I avoided the haircuts. Unfortunately, I don't yet have the time to take your class.

To: Dave who wrote (5590)	2/10/2001 2:58:02 PM
From: Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8925

Note: Error in Gains for 1/1/00 I made an error in my spread sheet for the 1/1/00 column ... should always check my cut-n'-paste <g>. If I remember correctly, that year was greeted with a huge open gap, that was quickly met with selling. Maybe that should have been a clue of things to come? In spite of that, you would still have a small gain today if you bought these hot stocks. % Gain if bought at various dates All-Time 1/1/97 1/1/98 1/1/99 1/1/00 1/1/01 High JNPR 409% - - 46% -18% -66% NTAP 1173% 850% 238% -11% -26% -75% JDSU 1278% 747% 395% -55% 9% -72% BRCM 500% - 143% -43% 1% -72% MSFT 179% 80% -16% -49% 36% -51% AMCC 2925% 2635% 900% 34% -30% -59% ARBA 10% - - -74% -41% -87% SDLI 2424% 4155% 1519% 49% 16% -65% BRCD 1211% - - 70% - 2% -45% AMAT 355% 175% 92% -33% 8% -63% SCMR - 64% - - -78% -27% -89% DELL 573% 119% -37% -54% 34% -61% SEBL 1816% 1038% 613% 38% 9% -51% EMLX 3837% 4251% 1616% 22% 22% -31% CIEN 332% 160% 1016% 187% 21% -47% WCOM 6% -5% -59% -63% 19% -71% BEAS 3285% 1087% 1601% 52% 0% -41% CHKP 2322% 1178% 1099% 137% 17% -27% PMCS 1362% 643% 260% -27% -15% -77% YHOO 1724% 237% -55% -88% -1% -89% AVG: 1283% 1157% 583% 3% 2% -62%

To: Dave who wrote (5590)	2/10/2001 5:16:59 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 8925

Hi Dave, Re: Assuming they weren't the proud owners of the all-time high top ticks, they are just probably ignoring the current action, because after all, they always come-back ... right?! Wrong, canal company stocks did not come back in 1811, railroad company stocks, by and large, did not come back in 1878, radio stocks did not come back in 1930, the Nifty Fifty did not come back in 1970, the biotechs of the 80's, by and large, did not come back in 1990 and surely the Internet stocks of 2000 will never come back. Many of the issues on your "best of the best" list have seen their all-time highs. A couple will return to stellar performance. Can you pick those from the list? My candidates for future success are: JDSU and CIEN. Because of superior managements. As far as others, I think we see a lot of one-trick ponies who are today being obsoleted by the VC community as quickly as they can do so. JMVHO, Ray :)

To: Dave who wrote (5590)	2/12/2001 2:11:41 AM
From: Teresa Lo	Respond to of 8925

Excellent post! I'm so happy there is someone on this thread who can make these great tables and show us the statistics! I think my comments is perhaps more geared to traders. I have seen so many posts and attempts to pick a bottom since Sept 2000 that I know for sure that many accounts have been destroyed. Hopefully it is not the same for most investors. T.