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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (68895)	2/10/2001 3:50:57 PM
From: KymarFye	Respond to of 99985

Zeev, for me, three weeks is an eternity... If I can wring a few points out of remaining short positions in the first couple HOURS on Monday, I'll be happy. If broad panic-selling induces a re-test of the 1-03 lows, and sets up a new round of successful short sales, I'll be happy for my trading account, though of course I'll feel sympathy for ltb&h'ers who are paying too close attention (I've been there). As for how the charts look as compared to 1-02, it depends on what you're looking at... JNPR, for instance, just blasted through its December low after little more than a brief hesitation. On the 2nd, it looked primed for a test, but not necessarily anything worse. BRCM could be making or be about to make a classic second re-test, which, if the s/r lore holds, would be more likely to fail than not. If, either before or after any technical bounce or short-covering rally, the Nasdaq can't hold its January low, and thus gives up all and more of the post-easing rally, a new wave of capitulation selling becomes easy to envision. I'm not making predictions, I'm just looking at potential signs and opportunities - pattern failures are also patterns.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (68895)	2/10/2001 4:42:38 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

ZEEV: Seems to me there are plenty of people on this thread who do not expect a decent NAZ bounce next week. On Friday Don Hays was talking about the NAZ getting down to 2425 before a decent bounce. But I still say the bounce in the NAZ tick late Friday was impressive. As is the fact that we have not seen many new NAZ lows on this latest drop. I do agree that this will be just a decent bounce -- not a sustained rally. The AAI, Investors Intelligence and Consensus sentiment readings are much too high for anything more.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (68895)	2/10/2001 7:52:24 PM
From: westpacific	Respond to of 99985

-"Something different to economy this time" - Greenspan -Lowest consumer confidence since 1996 and sharpest downturn with back to back quarters that have been seen in 50 years. -Lending - tightens at fastest rate in a decade. -Fed 100pt cut steppest since deep recession in 1981 to 1982. -Layoffs - in Jan. 270,000, up some 678% over Jan. 2000. 'ISI Group' -Default rate amongst speculative grade bond issues is approaching 9.5%, that would be the highest rate since 1990, when defalts surged in a recession. -For investors, the only important question is how much of the bad news, present and still to be accounted for, is in the market? Not very much, say Jay and David Levy, father and son and a really bright and perceptive pair of economy watchers. In their Levy Institute Forecast, they contend that "investor expectations and where profits are headed" are at considerable remove from from each other. They anticipate earnings will be worse than expected in the first quarter and will 'in all probability nosedive in the second half." And, for good measure they add that "2001's fourth-quarter earnings decline could be the steepest in postwar history. And 2002 may be scary." 'Barrons,02/12/01' -During the first week of January, investors poured $67.7B into money-market funds. That's the largest increase in three years and brings the total assets sitting in money-market funds to an all-time high. $49B of that money came from institutions. 'Investment Company Institute (ICI)' -Caught some statistic that new home mortgages were for upwards of 85% of purchase price, in addition there were record numbers of refinancing to pull equity out of real estate investment. Try to find the article later, but interesting trend. Saying something to the tune that consumers have become accustomed to utilizing stock market gains to pay bills and fuel their spending. Anyway, just more tidbits to ponder. Short, live long and prosper. West