To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (2014 ) 2/11/2001 7:38:50 AM From: axial Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 46821 Hi, Frank: The proposition that you have been advancing, that the imbalance of demand and supply at the power grid will have consequences for the telecosm, is substantiated (and then some) by the following article... Regards, Jim ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Assessing the Cost of Ubiquitous Connectivity [Mobile Malaise] Feb 09, 2001 Quentin Mendoza, Associate Editor, AnywhereYouGo.com Upon considering the implications of the energy crisis in California, which some of you are more painfully aware than I, one wonders what impact so-called ubiquitous connectivity will have on dwindling fuel supplies. After all, that is the ultimate manifestation of information technology, right? Furthermore, with the proliferation of wireless technology, many regions of the world that don't have the money and materials to build a wired communication infrastructure, now have the opportunity to be connected for the very first time. Hence, with half the world's population preparing for connectivity and the other half leaving their computers turned on 24/7, while keeping their phones and PDAs charged (not to mention their enormous SUVs fueled), the world is asking for an unprecedented energy crisis. As a result, a crushing economic depression will follow, and all of the economic gains made over the last two centuries will be summarily reversed. Isn't there anyone else out there that's the slightest bit concerned about this? Actually, there is -- my wife. You see, she is an ardent environmentalist and she was quick to point out to me that all of these devices that are supposed to improve the quality of life for the world will potentially be the source of even greater problems. It wasn't too long after I came to work at AnywhereYouGo.com that I became completely enamored with wireless technology and the enormous revenue opportunities that exist in underdeveloped markets around the world such as Africa and Asia. She was quick to point out that no matter what device you are talking about, they all have to be plugged in at some point. As it is, the world can barely sustain its energy consumption levels, so how was it going to supply any dramatic spikes in demand. Personal computers alone account for a massive increase in energy consumption in the United States. According to statistics reported by the U.S. Department of Energy, in 1995 PCs accounted for 13 percent of all energy consumed in commercial buildings, almost as much air conditioning. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration's 1999 Annual Energy Outlook estimates that over the next twenty years, commercial energy consumption will grow at a rate more than double overall all use, 3.2 versus 1.4 respectively. The DOE also reported that between the years of 1992 and 1995, the number of computer terminals in commercial buildings increased 45 percent, from 29.8 million to 43.0 million. That's a tremendous increase in the space of only three years. Unfortunately, I was unable to obtain statistics for the last five years, but it's easy to imagine that the proliferation of information appliances has continued unabated. Indeed, within consumer households, the number of PCs is on par with that of commercial spaces. In 1997, the Department of Energy reported that 35 percent of households owned at least one PC equaling 43 million devices in all. The impact on overall energy consumption is obvious, which is why the DOE and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) created the Energy Star Office Equipment Program. Many have you have probably seen the Energy Star label on various components of office equipment. Equipment so labeled usually possesses energy saving features such as going to "sleep" when it's idle. Indeed, it is the amount of time a computers sit idle and unused that inspired the creation of the program. A table of statistics provided by the Berkeley Lab's Environmental Energy Technologies Division shows that out of the week, the average PC is on 38.1 percent of the time. This statistic is derived by combining the number of hours the machine is on versus the number of hours the machine is idle. The point is that ubiquitous computing, especially that which is peer-to-peer, depends greatly on the "always-on" concept. As a result, machines that are on 100 percent of the time will conceivably consume three times as much energy as they currently do, and that's just PCs. Ultimately, it's in everyone's best interest to address this problem immediately. No doubt there are more convincing numbers than these I've provided, but these were uncovered after only a few minutes research so it appears obvious to me that it is an important issue. If it isn't now, it certainly will be when we face the difficult issue of powering the next evolution of information connectivity.ayg.com