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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (42019)	2/10/2001 9:22:12 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Tony, yes - read Malkiel. Written with a sense of humor and academic superiority [very subdued though]. It's a fun read and the part about past bubbles is illuminating. Some of it applies today. His discussion of valuation shifts is good, with some historic examples. We've seen this with INTC having a PE of 10 in 1994 and 60 or so last spring. There's really nothing new in investing that hasn't happened in some form before. He discusses the Nikkei bubble and it's origins. Quite different from what we have now. At one point Japan's real estate was worth 5x more on paper than all of the US. Selling the Imperial Palace and grounds at appraised value in 1990 would have yielded enough to buy California. Malkiel talked to Japanese professionals in the late '80s and everyone of them had faith their Ministry of Finance would keep control to avoid 'unpleasantness'. Gottfried

To: Tony Viola who wrote (42019)	2/11/2001 10:09:30 AM
From: daryll40	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I think I have to defend Greenspan's honor here. Listen, inflation has been dead for 20+ years, much of that attributable to Greenspan. But, unlike people, inflation always wants to come back to life. OK, so it appears he erred on the side of too much tightening too fast. So he'll backtrack until things get rolling again. That's the nature of his job. The man IS accountable...but the current slowdown does not fall outside the parameters of "doing a good job"...but perhaps in the zone of "went too far...now steering the ship back on course". We hope. Daryll40