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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42027)	2/11/2001 12:08:15 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Don, nice work. We have to use any info we can get. Gottfried [end]

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42027)	2/11/2001 5:19:05 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Don, looking at the AMAT price cycles... You posted the 3 cycle highs/lows Cycle 1 - High 14.97(1995) Low 5.44(1996) Percent Change -64 percent Cycle 2 - High 27.09(1997) Low 10.78(1998) Percent Change -60 percent Cycle 3 - High 115.00(2000) Low(so far) 34.13(2000) Percent Change -70 percent I just eyeballed the lows/highs and found price rose between 3x and 5x in the far cycles but a whopping 10x in the last one. Part of the 10x was due to general NAZ exuberance. So it's dangerous to measure top-down. If the last cycle had been 'only' a more realistic 5x, top price would have been 55 and 50% down from that is 27.5 - which is now my new bottom target.<vbG> Gottfried