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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2998)	2/11/2001 4:40:32 PM
From: Yorikke	Respond to of 3536

Robert, Given the fact that the consumer is already more in debt than any time in the last 50 or so years, at least under commonly accepted measurements, don't you think that it is a bit optimistic to put ones hopes in maintaining the economy in continued expansion of consumer spending and greater indebtedness? There must be some type of saturation dynamics at play here. Some point at which no matter what the interest rate the vast majority of consumers will view greater debt as less attractive than smaller or constant debt. It seems to me that even a mild pause in consumer debt increase will likely lead to significant reductions in consumer demand. Even now, with debt rising, a lot of it is simply churning of old debt, mortgage refinancing for example, which may increase debt, yet not effect real consumption. Given the growing uncertainty I have reduced my debt, unamerican as that may be. Are we not assuming that everyone else is the fool? That the 'consumer' is not us, and just some person without the sense to see that rising levels of indebtedness are beginning to be very costly and create a great potential for personal disaster?