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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DanWebzster who wrote (4304)	2/11/2001 1:52:25 PM
From: Jenna	Respond to of 6445

Financial Times: February 11 excerpt... ....Nasdaq wipes out gains In the U.S., the Nasdaq [US:COMP] ended on Friday exactly where it began the year, effectively wiping out all of January's Fed-induced gains. The index got slammed for a third straight session amid widespread worries over a rapidly deteriorating earnings outlook and tumbled 91.09 points, or 3.6 percent, to 2,470.97. See U.S. markets outlook. Declines in the tech sector also sparked a sell-off in the Dow Jones Industrials Average [US:DJIA], though advances in some of the index's more defensive names limited the downside. The Dow Industrials slid 99.10 points, or 0.9 percent, to 10,781.45. The index saw the largest losses in shares of AT&T, General Electric, Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, Wal-Mart, SBC Communications and Intel. Friday's European closing report European technology stocks fell 6 percent in the last five trading days in step with their U.S. counterparts, on concern a slowdown in the global economy will hurt company profit. Investors will look for fresh evidence on the outlook for profit growth in the coming year when a number of TMTs report earnings next week. Including media giant Vivendi Universal [FR:012777] [US:V], Finnish telecoms operator Sonera [US:SNRA], German mobile operator Mobilcom [DE:662240], Reuters [UK:RTR], the world's largest news agency, the Norwegian telecom operator Telenor [US:TELN], software maker Autonomy [UK:AU], optical networking components makers Bookham [UK:BHM] and The pan-European FTSE Eurotop 100 [UK:1883619] fell 2 percent over the week. Staying jittery The volatility in tech markets is likely to continue in the coming weeks as investors are still hesitant to buy some of the battered stocks, fearing they haven't hit the bottom yet and thinking more bad news may be in the pipeline, traders said. "Under the stimulus of rate cuts we are building towards the point where the fear of being out of the market equals the fear of being in," said James Dewhurst, director of equity sales at ING Charterhouse in London. "We're not at that point yet and people are scared of getting suckered in early, but the day will come." On Friday, the DJ STOXX technology index fell 6 percent, with Nokia [US:NOK], the world's No.1 handset maker, falling 9.4 percent to a 15-month low, following a downgrade by UBS Warburg, according to Reuters. Rival Ericsson [US:ERICY] dropped 7.8 percent. Nokia, Sonera, BT take a knock Sonera [US:SNRA], the Finnish telecoms operator, lost 6.5 percent after it announced the planned sale of one of its units won't go ahead. See MarketPulse. British Telecom [UK:BTA] fell 4 percent. The company has discussed the option of an emergency rights issue to cuts its debt with shareholders, according to the Financial Times. See FT story. Regional market coverage MarketPulse News Alerts Europe Asia/Pacific Americas Currencies In London, the FTSE 100 [UK:1805550] fell 0.6 percent, and the FTSE TechMARK [UK:1859502] dropped 1.9 percent on Friday. In Frankfurt, the DAX [DE:1876534] slipped 1.7 percent and the CAC 40 in Paris [FR:1804546] shed 1 percent. See London markets report. In the U.S., the Dow Jones [US:26099400] and Nasdaq [US:COMP] also extended their declines. See U.S. market story. "There's not enough confidence for techs around in the market; we won't see tech euphoria come back in the near future," said Erwin Muthspiel, equities trader at SGZ Bank in Frankfurt. "We have to consider that the U.S. economy has been growing for 8 years, we are spoilt with growth -- it's just natural that we see a consolidation for a few months."

To: DanWebzster who wrote (4304)	2/11/2001 1:53:34 PM
From: Jenna	Respond to of 6445

Financial Times: February 11 excerpt...There's not enough confidence for techs around in the market ....Nasdaq wipes out gains In the U.S., the Nasdaq [US:COMP] ended on Friday exactly where it began the year, effectively wiping out all of January's Fed-induced gains. The index got slammed for a third straight session amid widespread worries over a rapidly deteriorating earnings outlook and tumbled 91.09 points, or 3.6 percent, to 2,470.97. See U.S. markets outlook. Declines in the tech sector also sparked a sell-off in the Dow Jones Industrials Average [US:DJIA], though advances in some of the index's more defensive names limited the downside. The Dow Industrials slid 99.10 points, or 0.9 percent, to 10,781.45. The index saw the largest losses in shares of AT&T, General Electric, Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, Wal-Mart, SBC Communications and Intel. Friday's European closing report European technology stocks fell 6 percent in the last five trading days in step with their U.S. counterparts, on concern a slowdown in the global economy will hurt company profit. Investors will look for fresh evidence on the outlook for profit growth in the coming year when a number of TMTs report earnings next week. Including media giant Vivendi Universal [FR:012777] [US:V], Finnish telecoms operator Sonera [US:SNRA], German mobile operator Mobilcom [DE:662240], Reuters [UK:RTR], the world's largest news agency, the Norwegian telecom operator Telenor [US:TELN], software maker Autonomy [UK:AU], optical networking components makers Bookham [UK:BHM] and The pan-European FTSE Eurotop 100 [UK:1883619] fell 2 percent over the week. Staying jittery The volatility in tech markets is likely to continue in the coming weeks as investors are still hesitant to buy some of the battered stocks, fearing they haven't hit the bottom yet and thinking more bad news may be in the pipeline, traders said. "Under the stimulus of rate cuts we are building towards the point where the fear of being out of the market equals the fear of being in," said James Dewhurst, director of equity sales at ING Charterhouse in London. "We're not at that point yet and people are scared of getting suckered in early, but the day will come." On Friday, the DJ STOXX technology index fell 6 percent, with Nokia [US:NOK], the world's No.1 handset maker, falling 9.4 percent to a 15-month low, following a downgrade by UBS Warburg, according to Reuters. Rival Ericsson [US:ERICY] dropped 7.8 percent. Nokia, Sonera, BT take a knock Sonera [US:SNRA], the Finnish telecoms operator, lost 6.5 percent after it announced the planned sale of one of its units won't go ahead. See MarketPulse. British Telecom [UK:BTA] fell 4 percent. The company has discussed the option of an emergency rights issue to cuts its debt with shareholders, according to the Financial Times. See FT story. In London, the FTSE 100 [UK:1805550] fell 0.6 percent, and the FTSE TechMARK [UK:1859502] dropped 1.9 percent on Friday. In Frankfurt, the DAX [DE:1876534] slipped 1.7 percent and the CAC 40 in Paris [FR:1804546] shed 1 percent. See London markets report. In the U.S., the Dow Jones [US:26099400] and Nasdaq [US:COMP] also extended their declines. See U.S. market story. "There's not enough confidence for techs around in the market; we won't see tech euphoria come back in the near future," said Erwin Muthspiel, equities trader at SGZ Bank in Frankfurt. "We have to consider that the U.S. economy has been growing for 8 years, we are spoilt with growth -- it's just natural that we see a consolidation for a few months."

To: DanWebzster who wrote (4304)	2/13/2001 11:00:08 AM
From: Lane Hall-Witt	Respond to of 6445

DW -- CIEN: Sorry to take so long responding to you; I've been away for the past couple of days. In terms of its swing cycles, CIEN has bottomed in the 60s-low 70s several times before reversing to the upside, so this historically has been a pretty good range to pick up a position for a swing play on the long side. However, I'd really want to see evidence that it's going to hold: with companies like JNPR and CSCO failing to hold important support levels, I worry that an overpriced stock like CIEN could plunge, too. As far as treating CIEN as an earnings play: I must confess that, unlike most people, I usually ignore my regular names when their earnings hit. What I like about my regulars is their consistent day-in, day-out tendencies. The earnings game disrupts the normal pattern, so I usually just sit it out until the dust clears. I do play earnings, just not usually with my regular names unless I have a very high degree of confidence that I know how it'll behave. CIEN really looks like a mixed bag to me right now: it is overpriced, trending downward, and has high company-specific expectations but low macroeconomic expectations. It's also a favorite among daytraders and big-money speculators. So what's the earnings play? Beats the heck out of me! The only thing I'd strongly recommend is being flat when the earnings announcement comes out. Too often, holding through earnings is just a crapshoot.