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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rashomon who wrote (11032)	2/11/2001 1:27:48 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Hi Rashomon: I'm not quite sure if March will be the time to buy into the semi's. Maybe August. For timing what I've learned is we do need an extreme reading on the tic. Either 2 to 4 days in the -1100 range or one good spike past -1400. I'll be looking for this pattern in early March. Of course outside events can change this view (like Fed easing b/4 March 20th). At that time I'll only be looking to enter companies which should do well fundamentally and have a good bounce potential. I still think this rally will die out in June time frame (this of course will depend on 3rd / 4th qtr earnings forecasts at that time) As an example CSCO is forecasting 5% drop next qtr in revenues with subsequent qtr flat. If next qtr they come out and say 3rd qtr(their 1st fiscal quarter but 3rd calendar) will also be flat or down it will become more ugly. Notice CSCO inventory problem. This is part of SSTI problem as a supplier to networkers. Why I think SSTI will see single digits (it can bounce but won't be one of my candidates). I'm still reading of credit tightening by the banks which combined with the job announcements should continue to erode consumer confidence. As an example of how I can be wrong I doubled up on CMRC Thursday @ 26 area (had been a support line). Its a good bounce candidate but the sector is now out of favor so the bounce won't be strong. Good news it filled the gap from the earnings announcment. Bad news it broke 26 which is now resistance. Its problem is it still doens't have earnings (need to reach the summer for better visability here). Good luck. Tim