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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (42035)	2/11/2001 2:14:24 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Michael, how about what I alluded to before, that companies like Cisco, Sun, EMC and others are being told by very big corporations that they don't have CY2001 budgets approved yet? You also saw what LSI's Corrigan said. I don't think it's a long term thing because I believe more than most that you have to invest in tech to survive: computers, network infrastructure, storage, software, etc., but no budget is no budget. What these companies are doing is just holding off for a Q or 2. Wall Street has no patience, however, just look at Cisco's stock since last Tuesday. Long term, there is no company I believe in more than Cisco, especially because of their top management. But nobody can break loose customers' $$$ without approved budgets. Hope I'm wrong about the short term, right about the long term. Tony

To: michael97123 who wrote (42035)	2/11/2001 3:30:04 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I suspect there are many in sales in other tech areas that are beginning to sense recovery since the Fed first lowered rates. Yes, indeed. I don't know if you follow the Economic Cycle Research Institute, but I've made cyber friends with Lakshman Achuthan who is the Managing Director and he posts updates on my site. (He is also on CNBC once or twice a month as well as Yahoo! finance) Here are some examples: suite101.com The growth rate of the Weekly Leading Index recovered to -1.5% in the Jan. 26th reading from -3.5% in the Jan. 19th reading. The recent recovery in the Weekly Leading Index provides ground for cautious optimism. If it persist, it will be an early sign that the overall economy is veering away from a recessionary path. and just last week: suite101.com In answer to Steve's question: In what vicinity on the LEI do we switch to inflation watch? The short answer to your question is watch the Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) if you want to know when to worry about upcoming inflation pressures. I would like to clarify, that the Yahoo interview shows charts of two very different leading indicators. The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is all about economic growth. We are hopeful that it has made a cyclical turn up, pointing to an end to the downturn in the coincident measures of the economy on the horizon. Now my (Kirk's) comments: The ECRI FIG charts showed that inflation turned over at about the time we had our election fiasco. I believe that the Fed didn't want to lower rates until the political issues were settled but the data was in hand in November that said inflation had turned. I think that the 2 month wait to lower rates will cause our "landing" to be harder than it could have been and might even go to a quarter or two of negative GDP growth. On the positive side (read those ECRI links I posted), the weekly leading index (WLI) has turned up and has continued up for the past 3 weeks so it indicates that we are looking at better growth in the future unless something bad happens to cause an uncharacteristic switch in direction. BTW, you can subscribe to the ECRI thread so when Lakshman posts an update you will be sent an email. There is a link to subscribe at the bottom of the page or use this: suite101.com This chart shows the WLI graph thru Feb 2 and how it has changed direction: suite101.com

To: michael97123 who wrote (42035)	2/12/2001 6:11:31 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Mike, I'm with you in that I don't see this being a long-term event, not even a recession. However, let's say that the big chip makers see soon (next 6 weeks) that everything will be hunky-dory and they begin to press ahead with 2001 plans. Delays will be rampant. First, the chip makers have to approve their budgets. (One of the other responses alluded to this, and I agree, they're dragging their heels right now.) Then the folks have to decide on which tools to buy. Then place the order (and that isn't an overnight thing either, if I misremember the AMAT sales process). Then 13-16 weeks to build the tools and deliver. So even if the industry turns on a dime, AMAT won't be back to humming for a while. Maybe three quarters.... Mitch