Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (46)	2/11/2001 3:24:11 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 52237

YEs, we may just go nowhere. But we can trade that. I am working on momentum indicators for stocks I like. I need to be able to see the turn COMING-- e.g., a slowing or money flow. Just working on some ideas. Thanks for the answer- as always, informative.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (46)	2/11/2001 8:19:22 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

E&M are crystal clear on this - the primary trend is still down, and thus a 100% retracement is the target Ah, but the primary trend is still down. intelligentspeculator.com Lower highs, lower lows, on a weekly chart - is all we need to know to define 'primary' trend. E&M would certainly approve. We didn't have a single perfectly formed wedge on this rally, beginning off the lows on decreasing volume E&M may not forgive me, but many technical analysts would agree with me that 'perfection' is rarely found nor needed in order to perform effective and useful analysis. Having said that, the volume picture is not as distorted as you suggest. intelligentspeculator.com A look at Advancing volume vs Declining volume on Nasdaq (bottom panel) shows the median Advancing volume dropping off steadily throughout most of the rally. This would be consistent with the wedge formation pictured in the upper most panel. At the same time, declining volume increased steadily throughout the advance, consistent with an unhealthy advance. Is it perfect? No. Does it Matter? No. Is there a useful take-away from this? Depends on whether being completely rigid or making the right trading decisions is important. Wedges by their definition are zones of consolidation. Given where price had been over the period from mid December to mid January, its reasonable to call that movement consolidation. Frequently when a wedge is broken, price will attempt to regain the wedge. This example exhibited this behavior and failed to hold it. This action validates the scenario further. Wedge or no wedge, the primary trend on the daily is down; the primary trend on the weekly is down until proven otherwise (i.e. it must not make a higher low). The one negative I see is that the channel breaks could mean that the uptrend is exhausted for now, meaning a trading range/consolidation As far as I'm concerned, the daily uptrend was broken on the break of the 1/26 low. A break of an uptrend does not automatically mean that it goes into a trading range. PS: And I guess on Nasdaq we also have to deal with the change in volume as a result of different methods of reporting trades there. Ugh!